Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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564 FXUS63 KICT 190813 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing shower/storm chances starting tonight and lasting through the weekend. - Below normal temps likely this weekend through the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Currently have upper ridging stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin with water vapor imagery showing an upper impulse tracking across the Northern Rockies. At the same time, weak upper troughing extends from the Southern Appalachians into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes region. May see some small showers or storms early this morning west of I-135 along a mid level baroclinic zone. This activity would remain fairly isolated with severe storms not expected. Upper impulse over the Northern Rockies is expected to track southeast and will be sliding across central/eastern Nebraska late this afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will likely develop over west/central Nebraska this afternoon along a surface trough and ahead of the upper wave. This activity will track south early this evening as they move into north central and northwest KS and eventually into central KS later tonight. While confidence is high that activity will make it into the forecast area tonight, confidence is low on how widespread it will be. So will keep the higher pops over western and northern portions of the forecast area. Not expecting any severe storms with the storms tonight with some small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible. By Sat morning, some scattered convection will continue to slide southeast, moving into south central KS and eventually the Flint Hills by the afternoon hours. Current thinking is that additional storms may develop Sat afternoon along the surface trough, which looks to be northwest of the KS Turnpike. Even though surface temps will not be that hot, cool mid level temps will allow for enough instability for storms and possibly even a strong storm or two. Upper impulse is expected to close off over western IA/eastern Nebraska Sat evening and move very little through early Sun afternoon. Will hold onto pops for Sat night through Sun as there is some model agreement in a few upper perturbations rotating around the backside of the upper low. In addition, would expect some additional diurnally driven convection Sunday afternoon/early evening as we maintain unseasonably cool mid level temps. Upper low will sink southeast into northeast KS Sun night into Mon morning and into northern MO by Mon night. This will push the better precip chances south and east of the forecast area. However, below normal temps do look to remain through at least Tue with highs in the 80s forecast. Western CONUS upper ridging will slowly build east by mid week and will allow for temps to warm back closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the period. South and southeast winds will remain light, with a subtle diurnal increase to 12-15kts this afternoon. Otherwise the main aviation concerns will revolve around chances for isolated showers and storms. The first chance (15% chance) this morning near daybreak west of a KSLN to KHUT line and the second chance (30-40% chance) late evening through end of the TAF period potentially affecting KRSL to KGBD. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...KMB