336
FXUS63 KICT 191137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing shower/storm chances starting tonight and lasting
  through the weekend.

- Below normal temps likely this weekend through the start of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Currently have upper ridging stretching from the Desert
Southwest into the Great Basin with water vapor imagery showing
an upper impulse tracking across the Northern Rockies. At the
same time, weak upper troughing extends from the Southern
Appalachians into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface,
high pressure extends from the Mid Mississippi Valley across
the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes region.

May see some small showers or storms early this morning west of
I-135 along a mid level baroclinic zone. This activity would
remain fairly isolated with severe storms not expected. Upper
impulse over the Northern Rockies is expected to track southeast
and will be sliding across central/eastern Nebraska late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will likely develop
over west/central Nebraska this afternoon along a surface
trough and ahead of the upper wave. This activity will track
south early this evening as they move into north central and
northwest KS and eventually into central KS later tonight. While
confidence is high that activity will make it into the forecast
area tonight, confidence is low on how widespread it will be.
So will keep the higher pops over western and northern portions
of the forecast area. Not expecting any severe storms with the
storms tonight with some small hail, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall possible.

By Sat morning, some scattered convection will continue to
slide southeast, moving into south central KS and eventually the
Flint Hills by the afternoon hours. Current thinking is that
additional storms may develop Sat afternoon along the surface
trough, which looks to be northwest of the KS Turnpike. Even
though surface temps will not be that hot, cool mid level temps
will allow for enough instability for storms and possibly even
a strong storm or two. Upper impulse is expected to close off
over western IA/eastern Nebraska Sat evening and move very
little through early Sun afternoon. Will hold onto pops for Sat
night through Sun as there is some model agreement in a few
upper perturbations rotating around the backside of the upper
low. In addition, would expect some additional diurnally driven
convection Sunday afternoon/early evening as we maintain
unseasonably cool mid level temps.

Upper low will sink southeast into northeast KS Sun night into
Mon morning and into northern MO by Mon night. This will push
the better precip chances south and east of the forecast area.
However, below normal temps do look to remain through at least
Tue with highs in the 80s forecast. Western CONUS upper ridging
will slowly build east by mid week and will allow for temps to
warm back closer to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout much of the TAF period.

South and southeast winds will remain light, with a subtle
diurnal increase to 12-15kts across central KS this afternoon.
Otherwise the main aviation concerns will revolve around chances
for showers and storms. Can`t rule out an isolated storm this
morning from KRSL to KHUT, however any such activity has
remained well to the west so far this morning. Chances increase
this evening and tonight (25-55% chance) along and northwest of
the KS-Turnpike. Central KS has the greatest chance for storm
activity, which may be severe. Brief reductions to flight
categories will be possible in storms.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KMB