Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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289 FXUS63 KICT 070535 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk for locally damaging winds this evening in central KS. - Periodic rounds of convection, some strong with locally heavy rainfall late tonight through Sunday night. - Generally drier with a warming as we progress thru next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Broad troughing encompassed the interior conus with several shortwaves traversing thru the flow this weekend which will accentuate the upper trof from the Upper Midwest across the lower Plains by Sunday night. A moderately unstable airmass and likewise bulk shear will foster severe convection thru the late afternoon from across northwest Kansas. Despite this broken line of convection encountering somewhat less instability as it moves east-southeast by early evening into west central/north central Kansas, steep lapse rates will promote strong downdrafts and storm-scale outflow with potential to affect northwest portions of the forecast area, especially Russell/Lincoln/ Barton counties early this evening before weakening. Latest runs of the HRRR/RAP lend more support/confidence in this scenario thru the early evening. The forecast is a bit more tricky later tonight into Sunday as there remains several plausible convective scenarios. However, there seems to be general support for additional convection overnight, possibly aided by mesoscale influences, mainly across portions of western Kansas, which will tend to move/propagate into western portions of central and south central Kansas toward dawn. A few strong storms will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall with increased precipitable water (PWAT) values. While model trends continue to support pushing the effective surface frontal boundary into Oklahoma on Sunday, except perhaps far southeast Kansas, the atmosphere will remain modestly unstable even with limited surface heating across southern Kansas. This in combo with decent cloud bearing shear will still support a few strong storms from elevated and any quasi-surface based convection. Rather high PWAT values will also foster efficient rainfall rates as well into Sunday night. Convective chances will linger into Monday within the mean upper trough over the area. The southern portion of the aforementioned upper trof looks to help steer the remnants of Beryl northeastward across the Ark- La-Tex and Arkansas thru early next week. The northern portion of the upper trof looks to linger across the Upper Midwest and lower Missouri Valley through at least mid-week as the center of the western conus upper ridge moves gradually east across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. While non-zero, chances for organized precip seem somewhat more limited with temperatures gradually moderating closer to seasonal climo by Friday. Darmofal && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Diminishing showers/storms over south central Kansas will continue overnight. Meanwhile scattered showers and storms look to redevelop Sunday afternoon across the region and will introduce some PROB30s for storms. Otherwise wind direction will be difficult to pin down with dying convection early this morning and how things recover for Sunday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...CDJ