019
FXUS63 KICT 210808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower/storm chances today over mainly southeast KS.

- Below normal temps continue for today and Mon with a gradual
  warm-up starting Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Currently have upper low pressure situated over central IA with
north/northwest flow remaining over the Plains. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper impulse over western WY with another
piece of energy over southeast CO. At the surface, a weak
inverted trough extends from southwest TX into central OK.

One of the main changes from the previous forecast was to
decrease storm chances, especially for tonight and Monday.

A few showers and storms are currently ongoing from south
central KS into the Flint Hills and are more numerous across
north central OK. This is in an area of 850-700mb moisture
transport and ahead of a weak mid level trough. Current thinking
is that we will continue to see some iso/sct activity this
morning mainly across the Flint Hills into southeast KS as mid
level moisture transport sinks south. Will maintain some small
pops this afternoon across mainly southeast KS which will be
closer to the upper low, which will be sinking into northern MO
today. Upper low will start to get sheared out as it tracks into
the Ohio Valley late tonight into Mon morning. There is also
decent model agreement in some upper energy sinking south out of
Central CO and into the TX Panhandle by Mon morning and finally
near the Red River by late Mon afternoon. This is where the
more widespread shower and storm activity is expected.

By Tue morning, upper trough is expected to stretch from the
Ohio Valley down into central/eastern TX. This will keep the
better storm chances southeast of the forecast area. Meanwhile,
Western CONUS upper ridge will start to build east which will
also help to dry things out.

As far as temps go, we are still expecting below normal highs
for today and Mon with a gradual warm-up commencing Tue and
continuing into the weekend. By Wed we are looking for highs
back into the low and mid 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

SCT to BKN lower VFR/MVFR cigs possible overnight before
scattering out mid morning. Winds will remain light and mainly
out of the ENE throughout the taf period.

A small chance (15-25%) for isolated showers and storms will
continue overnight and thru this afternoon across south central
and southeast KS. Amendments will be made if necessary for this
chance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KMB