291
FXUS63 KICT 170010
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last hot day across the region; heat indices at or above 105
expected this afternoon across southern and southeast Kansas.

- Additional showers and storms tonight. Some could be strong to
severe with heavy rainfall, mainly across far southern Kansas.

- Below average temperatures forecast from Wednesday through the
middle of next week.

- Next storm chances forecast for this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

In the wake of last night`s/this morning`s significant severe storms
along the I-70 corridor, an MCV was noted across south-central
Kansas early this afternoon and slowly moving east-southeastward
across the region. A residual surface boundary is also being noted
along an Alva-Winfield-Eureka-Iola line, and this will likely be the
delineation between a less unstable airmass (to the northwest) and a
more unstable airmass (to the southeast) this evening as storms move
in from the west. However, there are a couple of caveats that will
need to be considered throughout the remainder of the afternoon.
First is that this boundary is likely to continue sagging
southeastward with the MCV this afternoon and evening. Also, strong
subsidence on the west side of this MCV will making conditions
hostile for the continuation of storms as they approach from the
west this evening and tonight. As such, this morning`s suite of CAMs
suggest storms are likely to make it to a Great Bend-Medicine Lodge
line before generally falling apart and mostly continue along or
just south of the Oklahoma/Kansas state line thereafter. It still
possible storms could occur as far north as the US-54 corridor, but
chances that these storms will be severe appears to be decreasing
early this afternoon. The best chances for severe storms for our CWA
tonight will be across portions of Harper and Sumner counties where
quarter sized hail, up to 70 mph wind gusts, and heavy rainfall will
be possible. It should be noted as well that as storm chances have
shifted southward into Oklahoma, the threat of persistent heavy
rainfall leading to flash flooding is also shifting to along or just
south of the state line.

The threat of intense heat will also continue across south-central
and southeast Kansas for the remainder of the afternoon and into the
early evening. While temperatures are slightly less hot than
previously forecast, the presence of the boundary is allowing for
more moisture to pool up along and south of the US-54 corridor, and
heat indices are still expected to be around 105 for several hours
this afternoon and evening across southern and southeast Kansas.

In the wake of tonight`s activity, much milder temperatures are
expected across the entirety of the forecast from Wednesday through
the remainder of the forecast period. A slight warm up is possible
on Friday ahead of another cold front expected to pass through the
area this weekend. Uncertainty is still relatively high, but the
area should its next storm chances as the front passes through the
region Saturday and Sunday. It`s too early to determine if severe
weather will be a concern going into the weekend, so stay tuned to
the forecast over the next few days. One thing that can be said with
more certainty sis that this weekend`s cold front will reinforce
more mild temperatures across the area and should prolong below
average temperatures through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions expected for most of the TAF period. However
brief reductions to flight categories will be possible in any storms
that may develop tonight through tomorrow morning.

Storms across north central KS continue to diminish as they
approach the area early this evening. However, additional
storms are expected overnight mainly along and south of a line
from KGBD to KCNU. Included VCTS where chances were greatest.
Otherwise, winds will turn light overnight and vary from NNE to
ENE.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...KMB