765
FXUS63 KICT 130834
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
334 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hit-or-miss/isolated thunderstorm chances through early
  Sunday.

- Hot above average temperatures through Monday.

- A return to cooler weather and off-and-on thunderstorm chances
  by late Tuesday, persisting through at least next weekend or
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across
central and eastern Kansas through early Sunday, due to persistent
weak to modest mid-level warm advection underneath subtle upper
disturbances embedded within northerly flow aloft. The northerly mid
to upper flow will provide just enough shear for an isolated strong
to marginally severe storm threat.

Otherwise, hot temperatures and breezy/gusty south winds will
prevail through Monday. Will continue to the heat advisory through
Monday evening, as afternoon through early evening heat indices will
exceed 100-105 degrees each day.

Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a pattern change to cooler
and off-an-on wet weather is anticipated by late Tuesday, and
persisting through at least next weekend or early next week. The
culprits will be longwave upper troughing becoming established
across the central and eastern CONUS, driving a cold front south
into Mid-America. The latest guidance suggests these off-and-on
thunderstorm chances will be greatest late Tuesday through Wednesday
night or Thursday, and then again Saturday through early next week.
Periodic bouts of strong to severe storms are possible, given a
favorable combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms are possible across the
region through about mid-morning, as a weak upper disturbance
approaches from the north. Otherwise, breezy/gusty south winds
will prevail today regionwide.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK