833
FXUS63 KICT 140603
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
103 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pesky shower/storm chances will linger through tonight.

- Scorching stretch of Summer heat looks to peak on Monday!

- Turning cooler by mid-week with some shower/storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Despite continued/gradual warming at or below 700 mb, the
temperatures aloft closer to 500 mb remained relatively cool.
This continues to promote isolated to widely scattered elevated
convection where there remains sufficient mid-level moisture
potential instability within the weakly perturbed northerly
flow aloft around the periphery of the ridge aloft. This has
had some effect on early afternoon heating, though enough late
day sunshine is expected to realize late day highs close to the
going forecast. The rest of the forecast remains on track with
respect to the going Heat Advisory and day over day warming
resulting in the pinnacle of the heat peaking on Monday
afternoon across much of the area. Timing of the anticipated
stronger surface cold front on Tuesday is somewhat in question,
though south central and southeast Kansas stand the better
chance to languish one more day in the more intense heat. If
this trend continues then the Heat Advisory may need to be
extended into Tuesday for these areas with later forecasts.

As a significant upper trof pivots eastward from the Upper
Midwest across the Great Lakes through mid-week, a welcome
much cooler/slightly below climo airmass will advect south
across mid-America. While there will be chances for a period of
mainly post-frontal showers/storms Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, it appears drier air will be more progressive
in overspreading the area associated with the large Midwest low
level anticyclone. So the main theme for later in the week will
be the more tolerable below climo temperatures for Kansas as the
more intense heat persists across parts of the western conus as
the upper ridge builds northward from the interior West into
the Canadian Rockies.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Subtle mid-upper energy approaching from the north in concert
with persistent modest 800-600mb warm advection should support a
gradual uptick in widely scattered showers/thunderstorms by
around 10z, persisting through mid-late this morning. Brief
heavy rain and occasional lightning strikes may accompany the
strongest activity. For now, only included VCSH at HUT-ICT-CNU,
but may eventually need TS. Otherwise, breezy/gusty south winds
will prevail regionwide today.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ADK