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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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946 FXUS63 KICT 141937 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 237 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monday looks to be the hottest day of the Summer so far! - Heat relief transitioning south across the area Tuesday into Wednesday along with some shower/storm chances. - Cooler/below climo temperatures for the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The pinnacle of the heat will peak on Monday afternoon with highs above 105 west of the turnpike and heat indices around or just above 105 areawide. The position of the frontal boundary wavering along or just north of the I-70 corridor may slip southward again into a portion of central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon, though still plenty hot with a ribbon of compressional warming just south of the front. Isolated high based showers/storms may form just northwest of the area and move into parts of central Kansas by early Monday evening, posing a marginal wind risk. Convective chances look to increase across the entire area, mainly along and just behind the cold front, as it moves southward across Kansas and into Oklahoma from Tuesday into Tuesday night. While not widespread, clusters of thunderstorms should produce scattered areas of beneficial (some locally heavy) rainfall. A few strong to marginally severe storms will also be possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. While chances for post-frontal showers and storms will linger through Wednesday night, progressively drier air will overspread the area associated with the large low level anticyclone settling southward across the Midwest. So the main theme for the latter half of the week will be the more tolerable below climo temperatures for Kansas as the more intense heat persists across parts of the western conus as the upper ridge builds northward from the interior West into the Canadian Rockies. Darmofal && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the period. An outflow boundary has moved across portions of central KS and is slowly moving southward while becoming more diffuse. Winds behind the diffusing boundary will temporarily be out of the northeast before turning back to southerly. Thus tempo groups were added to central KS sites. Otherwise, southerly winds will prevail across the area, gusty through the afternoon hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...KMB