755
FXUS63 KICT 180508
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1208 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of below average temperatures through at
  least mid next week.

- Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances are forecast from
  Thursday morning through early next week, best chances will
  be Friday night through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Much milder and drier air has filtered across the area early this
afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the
upper 50s and low 60s! Talk about a relief from the hot and humid
conditions over the past fews days. Northeasterly winds though the
remainder of the day should continue to promote these conditions
this afternoon and evening. Analyzing water vapor satellite, a
powerful upper ridge is located over the Desert Southwest with deep
troughing over the Great Lakes Region. As a result, the central
plains is under a northwesterly flow regime, and this is likely to
stay over the next week or so. This will generally keep temperatures
on the milder side, and embedded ripples in the upper flow will
provide some opportunities for storms across the region.

A low chance (~15%) of isolated showers or storms exists across
portions of central Kansas Thursday morning. This is thanks to
just a little bit of moisture remaining in the mid level along
with some very subtle WAA at 700 mb. Forecast soundings indicate
just a hint of elevated instability (around 100 to 300 J/kg)
rooted around 700 mb, so a couple of showers or maybe a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the I-70 corridor mainly
west of Salina at or just after sunrise. This activity is likely
to dissipate by midday, and much of the forecast area will
experience another mild day in the 80s on Thursday.

Friday morning could be a bit more interesting with slightly more
prominent mid level WAA and around 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE.
Short term hi-res models are a bit more bullish with convection
Friday morning than global models at this time, so trends will need
to be monitored over the next day or so to see if storm chances
Friday morning need to be increased. Regardless, by midday Friday,
activity should decrease, and much of day will likely be dry for
much of the forecast area.

In lieu of an approaching front, a slight warm up is forecast
for Friday with afternoon highs in the low 90s. Widespread
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northern High
Plains and move south and east into portions of northern and
central Kansas Friday evening into the nighttime hours. Timing
and coverage of thunderstorms across the area Friday night into
Saturday morning is still uncertain. Global models are not
particularly excited about instability or the strength of the
LLJ across the area, so any ongoing storms look to struggle
making it across Kansas late Friday night/early Saturday
morning. Additionally, instability appears to be quite meager on
Saturday, and with no real focus, any further thunderstorm
development on Saturday will be hit-or-miss at best.

That being said, a cutoff upper low will sink down out of the
Midwest and into the central plains this weekend and early next
week. This will help to keep hit-or-miss storm chances through early
next week as well as promote cooler temperatures. In fact, many
locations will struggle to reach 80 during the afternoon hours
Saturday through Monday. These below average temperatures will
likely stick around through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period with light
winds. The only concern will be in the KGBD and KRSL area where
there is a slight (<20% chance) for some showers or a
thunderstorm around 10Z-13Z time period. Kept it out of the TAF
for now as confidence remains very low at this time. Otherwise,
good flying weather is expected.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ELM