535
FXUS63 KICT 152337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Initial (modest) heat relief and widely scattered shower/storm
  chances tonight thru Tuesday.

- Better chances for showers/storms Tuesday night with stronger
  secondary cold front with more significant cooling on
  Wednesday.

- Cooler/drier air with temperatures below climo to finish the
  work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Heat relief is on the way, though it will come in somewhat
limited fashion on Tuesday behind a shallow/weak surface cold
front. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers/storms
are possible along or just behind the boundary this evening,
more probable just north and west of the forecast area. However,
some short term models suggest a loosely organized cluster may
move or develop east-southeastward into central and portions of
southern Kansas toward dawn. So will grade modest chance PoPs
across central Kansas to slight PoPs closer to the Oklahoma
border. Any convective activity could linger thru the morning on
Tuesday with the effective initial front expected to push along
or just south of the Oklahoma border by the afternoon. Modest
cooling (less hot) conditions are expected behind this shallow
front. That said, heat indices may still climb to near 105 for the
Oklahoma border counties of south central and southeast Kansas, so
the Heat Advisory may need to be extended, though confidence was not
high enough to do so with this forecast cycle. As a stronger upper
trof pivots southeastward from the Upper Midwest into the western
Great Lakes Tuesday night, the stronger secondary cold front will
move southward across Kansas. Convective chances look to increase
across the entire area by Tuesday night with a potential MCS
evolving in the upslope flow regime across the central high Plains
which should move southeastward along the moisture and instability
axis along the southward moving frontal zone. The cooler and drier
air will overspread area later Wednesday into Thursday as the large
low level anticyclone and Canadian origin airmass settles southward
across the Midwest. So the main theme for the latter half of the
week will continue to be the more tolerable below climo temperatures
for Kansas. The unseasonably mild regime should continue thru the
weekend with the core of the more intense heat residing across the
western conus as the upper ridge remains centered from Arizona and
Great Basin into the Canadian Rockies. Kansas will remain in
northerly flow aloft with potential weak disturbances dropping south
providing limited precip chances.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the period.

A front will be moving southward across the area through the
period which will turn southerly winds to northerly and later
northeasterly. Showers and storms may develop along and behind
the front overnight and tomorrow across central and southeast
KS. Went with VCTS/VCSH given lower confidence on
coverage/timing of storm activity. Brief reductions to flight
categories possible in storms.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...KMB