157
FXUS63 KICT 061807
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
107 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures anticipated this week.

- Unsettled weather returns with a chance of storms this evening
  through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A shortwave trough moving over the Northern Plains will drive a
frontal boundary southward into the Central High Plains late
today. This front will become a focus for deep moist convection.
As this area of showers and thunderstorms approaches central
Kansas early this evening, the activity will likely diminish
with loss of heating leading to uncertainty in how much of this
activity will impact our county warning area. The better signal
will likely remain just west of our area or west of Hwy 14
tonight. A pv anomaly rotating eastward over KS late tonight
into Sunday morning will likely bring another opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms during the predawn hours on Sunday
across southern Kansas but the better signal may remain further
south, closer to the frontal boundary which is expected to be
over central Oklahoma on Sunday. We continue to see a brief
period where PWATs are progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch
range over extreme southern Kansas on Sunday which may result in
some efficient rainfall but confidence in more widespread
excessive rain remains low with a better signal further south
into OK.

Some elevated showers and storms could linger into Sunday night as a
mid/upper trough slowly deepens across the Central and Northern
Plains but the threat for strong or severe storms remains low given
uncertainty in convection during the day on Sunday.

A stable post-frontal regime will gradually develop across the area
on Monday but some low pops were maintained early in the period,
especially across southern and southeast KS. Remnant tropical
moisture from Beryl is progged to build north/northeastward into the
Southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday but the effective front
should keep this moisture and impacts south of our area. Seasonably
mild temperatures are anticipated for July with highs in the 80s Mon-
Wed.

The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain situated over the Great
Basin area while a mid/upper trough camps out across the central
CONUS. This is expected to result in a continuation of seasonably
mild temperatures through the latter portion of the week with a
slight chance for showers/storms through the period. Temperatures
are progged to slowly moderate through the period with near or
slightly below normal values anticipated toward the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the TAF
period, however temporary reductions to MVFR or lower will be
possible in showers and storms that will impact the area this
evening thru end of the period.

Storms, some severe capable of damaging winds (60-70mph) and
large hail (quarters) will be possible this evening across
central KS. Additional showers and storms are expected
southeastward after 06z and continue thru much of the TAF period
with chance of precipitation greater than 50% across much of the
area.

South to southeast winds are expected to continue across the
area, however there is a chance an outflow boundary from this
evenings convection may temporary turn winds more northerly.
Thus confidence in wind direction is lower. Amendments will be
made as necessary should outflow induced winds impact sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KMB