955
FXUS64 KHUN 082327
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The story of warmer than average temperatures continues, with a
Heat Advisory in effect for all of northern Alabama until 7 pm.
With some influence from a ridge to the east and surface moisture
in place, this should keep temperatures predominantly in the
mid-70s. Winds should become very light and variable, especially
in valley areas. With this, some patchy fog remains possible,
especially in the mountain valleys if the surface can saturate
enough. Otherwise, skies should remain mostly clear for much of
the night. Some leftover diurnally driven convection may linger
into the late evening hours, before dissipating after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The main story here is going to be the passage of what remains
with Beryl to our NW on Tuesday. There is some model divergence on
exactly how much rain the TN Valley may get. However, it should be
safe to forecast higher PoPs, especially tomorrow afternoon. At
the moment, models are trending to a more quasi-linear solution
in storm mode, mainly in our northern areas. A few storms may get
on the stronger side, locally, with CAPE values near 1500-2000
J/kg and light wind shear, something to watch as we get closer.
Localized gusty winds will be the main threat with the strongest
storms. Otherwise, the warm and humid weather should continue
Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values
peaking in the 100-105 degree range. An additional Heat Advisory
may be needed for portions of the area on Tuesday as well. On
Wednesday, in wake of Beryl a slightly cooler and drier air mass
will work its way into the region. This would help to bring the
feels-like temperatures back towards the ambient temperatures in
the mid/upper 80s. This is forecast to be short-lived as a ridge
rebuilds right behind Beryl.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Heat continues to be the main concern during the long term period,
however, we are forecast to remain below thresholds for any heat
products to be issued for now as dew points remain in the 60s-70s.
Despite this, high temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper
90s to triple digits by Sunday with heat indices in the lower 100s.
As a result, populations without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration will be affected. We urge everyone to continue staying
hydrated, avoiding being outside during the hottest part of the day,
and avoiding leaving pets and/or children in unattended vehicles.

Otherwise, chances of showers/storms will be low (25% or less)
through the weekend. These chances will peak with diurnal heating in
the afternoon to early evening hours due to lack of strong synoptic
forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Thunderstorms are forecast to remain in the vicinity of both KMSL
and KHSV through the remainder of the evening. If they do move
over the terminal, amendments may be needed to account for
temporary IFR to MVFR conditions due to lowered visibilities and
ceilings. Otherwise, thunderstorms are forecast to dissipate
tonight and dry weather returns until Tuesday afternoon. PROB30
groups introduce low chances of MVFR conditions due to lowered
ceilings and visibilities with rain chances beginning at 16-17Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....Serre
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC