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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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955 FXUS64 KHUN 082327 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The story of warmer than average temperatures continues, with a Heat Advisory in effect for all of northern Alabama until 7 pm. With some influence from a ridge to the east and surface moisture in place, this should keep temperatures predominantly in the mid-70s. Winds should become very light and variable, especially in valley areas. With this, some patchy fog remains possible, especially in the mountain valleys if the surface can saturate enough. Otherwise, skies should remain mostly clear for much of the night. Some leftover diurnally driven convection may linger into the late evening hours, before dissipating after midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday Night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The main story here is going to be the passage of what remains with Beryl to our NW on Tuesday. There is some model divergence on exactly how much rain the TN Valley may get. However, it should be safe to forecast higher PoPs, especially tomorrow afternoon. At the moment, models are trending to a more quasi-linear solution in storm mode, mainly in our northern areas. A few storms may get on the stronger side, locally, with CAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg and light wind shear, something to watch as we get closer. Localized gusty winds will be the main threat with the strongest storms. Otherwise, the warm and humid weather should continue Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values peaking in the 100-105 degree range. An additional Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the area on Tuesday as well. On Wednesday, in wake of Beryl a slightly cooler and drier air mass will work its way into the region. This would help to bring the feels-like temperatures back towards the ambient temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. This is forecast to be short-lived as a ridge rebuilds right behind Beryl. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Heat continues to be the main concern during the long term period, however, we are forecast to remain below thresholds for any heat products to be issued for now as dew points remain in the 60s-70s. Despite this, high temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 90s to triple digits by Sunday with heat indices in the lower 100s. As a result, populations without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration will be affected. We urge everyone to continue staying hydrated, avoiding being outside during the hottest part of the day, and avoiding leaving pets and/or children in unattended vehicles. Otherwise, chances of showers/storms will be low (25% or less) through the weekend. These chances will peak with diurnal heating in the afternoon to early evening hours due to lack of strong synoptic forcing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Thunderstorms are forecast to remain in the vicinity of both KMSL and KHSV through the remainder of the evening. If they do move over the terminal, amendments may be needed to account for temporary IFR to MVFR conditions due to lowered visibilities and ceilings. Otherwise, thunderstorms are forecast to dissipate tonight and dry weather returns until Tuesday afternoon. PROB30 groups introduce low chances of MVFR conditions due to lowered ceilings and visibilities with rain chances beginning at 16-17Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Serre SHORT TERM....Serre LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...HC