357
FXUS64 KHUN 130544
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 834 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Troughing that extended from the eastern Great Lakes was
weakening, as strong upper ridging over the NW Atlantic basin
builds westward. This upper ridging was joining with another one
already over the 4-Corners. Despite the upper ridging, earlier
strong heating resulted in high temperatures that climbed into the
mid/upper 90s. This strong heating and resultant instability
resulted in a few showers and storms that fired over parts of
west/middle TN and western/central KY in the afternoon and early
evening. That activity has faded with a lost of daytime heating.

The on-going forecast appears to be on track, with 8 PM
temperatures cooling into the mid 70s to mid/upper 80s. The
temperatures should fall mainly into the lower 70s by daybreak
Saturday. No big changes are needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

We remain locked in the same pattern through at least Monday. A
weak upper-level trough should weaken as a ridge moves in from
the east and continues to promote sunshine and drier conditions. A
dying short wave may help spawn a few small showers to the south
and west by Sunday and Monday afternoons, but confidence is low.

Besides that, highs climb into the upper-90s to low-100s. The good
news, at least in the short term is that dewpoints should remain
in the 60s, meaning heat indices won`t climb much higher than the
ambient temperature. Although, we may approach Heat Advisory
criteria by Sunday afternoon - will need watching. Either way,
make sure to take breaks and stay hydrated when outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A slight chance in the pattern may begin to occur on Tuesday
stretching into the rest of the week as the ridge weakens and a
new trough begins to take shape in the East CONUS. However, this
will not thwart temperature rises on Tuesday as the main axis of
the warm plume of air emanating out of the SW will still be in
place across the region. Max daytime temps could still reach or
exceed 100F degrees on Tuesday, with heat indices climbing even
higher as dew points begin to increase. However, what may help to
inhibit temp rises will be an increase in cloud cover and the
potential for showers due to the increased moisture. POPs will
only be in the 20-30% range on Tuesday, but will increase into the
50-60% range for Wednesday and Thursday as a weak cold front
moves into the area from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the HSV/MSL terminals throughout
the duration of the valid TAF period, with few high-based Cu
beneath a scattered coverage of Ci. Sustained winds will be AOB 5
kts, with a NE flow transitioning to lgt/vrbl later this morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...Serre
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...70/DD