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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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166 FXUS64 KHUN 151504 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1004 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1004 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Temps as of 15Z are in the mid 80s to the lower 80s where there is greater cloud cover and a few light showers. We will remain in the NW periphery of a subtropical high today, but with an approaching shortwave that will round the trough, expecting to see low to medium chances (20-50%) of shower and thunderstorms by this afternoon. The greatest coverage will be east of a line stretching from Cullman Co up to Franklin Co TN. With the high PWATS and given instability up to 2k J/kg, a few storms could be strong producing gusty winds. With the slow steering flow, storms will be slow moving and also produce heavy downpours. On the flip side, heat will also be a factor yet again today. Will be closely monitoring cloud cover and T/Td trends as we are on the cusp of a Heat Advisory. Regardless, heat safety needs to be taken seriously. Take breaks, stay hydrated, and never leave people or pets in a unattended vehicle. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to diminish in both coverage and intensity around sunset this evening, but with some large scale ascent still being provided by the shortwave disturbance (noted above), convection may not dissipate as quickly as in previous nights. Thus, we will leave a low- medium POP in the grids this evening, ranging from 20% (NW) to 40% (SE). Patchy fog may develop in a few areas late this evening (especially those locations that experience rainfall), with a warm/muggy night in store featuring lows in the l-m 70s. Little change in the weather pattern is anticipated on Tuesday, although the departure of the shortwave trough to the east may result in weak subsidence and drying aloft, which could limit the coverage of afternoon showers/storms and result in temps a degree or two higher than Monday. If this trend continues, then a Heat Advisory may be warranted for portions of the local CWFA. It still appears as if the synoptic pattern across our region will begin to change on Tuesday night, as a northern stream shortwave trough digging into the Upper MS Valley will induce an increase in SW flow aloft. Although the slow-moving cold front related to this trough will remain well to the north of the region (in the OH Valley), strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow may foster the development of nocturnal thunderstorms over portions of the TN Valley (especially during the early morning hours on Wednesday). Latest model solutions indicate that the slow-moving cold front will drift southward into the I-40 corridor of TN by Wednesday afternoon, with the greatest concentration of convection throughout the day likely to remain to our north. However, there is some concern that a prefrontal trough may initiate showers and storms in our region by late Wednesday morning, and we have maintained suggested POPs of 55-65% during the afternoon hours. Due to the potential for morning clouds and early development of convection, highs should only reach the u80s-l90s, reducing the overall Heat Risk. A fairly widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday evening as the cold front makes its way southward into our region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Extended range guidance from the global models still suggests that a slightly cooler and wetter weather pattern is in store for the local area beginning later this week and extending into the weekend. This will take shape as a mid/upper-level longwave trough axis becomes established to the west of the local area, inducing modest (20-30 knot) SW flow atop a stalled frontal boundary that may reside across the CWFA for much of the period. With the potential for several smaller scale disturbances to track across the region in the SW flow aloft and PWAT values predicted to be near or slightly in excess of 2", several rounds of showers and storms will occur both during the day and at night. Locally heavy rainfall may eventually become a concern (especially across the southeastern portion of the forecast area, where the impacts of drier continental air will not be felt). Fortunately, the combination of clouds and precipitation will yield cooler temperatures in the m-u 80s (afternoon) and u60s-l70s (overnight). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 There have been no significant changes from previous aviation forecast reasoning, as broken layers of mid/high-lvl clouds (currently in place across the region) are expected to dissipate later this morning. This will allow for destabilization of the boundary layer and development of sct aftn SHRA/TSRA that should dissipate within a few hours of sunset this evening. Although storm coverage invof the terminals is highly uncertain, we will maintain a PROB30 group btwn 21-03Z, which best captures the timeframe for potential impacts. Prevailing sfc winds will remain from SW at speeds of 5-10 kts today, before diminishing to nearly calm overnight. Patchy BR/FG could develop late this evening, especially in locations that experience measurable rainfall later today. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...70