871
FXUS64 KHUN 152343
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
643 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 202

Any pulse-like convection should cease by 23z this evening. This
is reflected in our PoPs dropping shortly after sunset. These
storms have the capability of producing strong winds up to 40 mph
and heavy rainfall. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the
low to mid-70s by later in the night, with dewpoints in the
low-70s - generally a pretty seasonal July night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

In the upper-levels, the flow becomes weak as the UL ridge to the
east decays, with the jet stream displaced further away to the
north. Global models are suggesting very weak wind shear, with
only 10-15 kts in the upper-levels. This means that any
convection, will likely be pulse-like and only last for little
time. This is until Thursday, where a cold front will approach the
area and bring widespread chances for showers and storms.

Besides that, heat is forecast to continue being an issue every
afternoon, when not precipitating. In fact a Heat Advisory will
be in effect from 15z to 01z on Tuesday/Wednesday. This is due to
high temperatures in the upper-90s and dewpoints in the mid-70s
on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. This will raise heat indices
to the 105-108 degree range. With that, everyone should take
precautions, including taking breaks and staying hydrated while
outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Extended range guidance from the global models still suggests
that a slightly cooler and wetter weather pattern is in store for
the local area beginning later this week and extending into the
weekend. This will take shape as a mid/upper-level longwave trough
axis becomes established to the west of the local area, inducing
modest (20-30 knot) SW flow atop a stalled frontal boundary that
may reside across the CWFA for much of the period. With the
potential for several smaller scale disturbances to track across
the region in the SW flow aloft and PWAT values predicted to be
near or slightly in excess of 2", several rounds of showers and
storms will occur both during the day and at night. Locally heavy
rainfall may eventually become a concern (especially across the
southeastern portion of the forecast area, where the impacts of
drier continental air will not be felt). Fortunately, the
combination of clouds and precipitation will yield cooler
temperatures in the m-u 80s (afternoon) and u60s-l70s (overnight).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period, with light winds and a mostly clear
sky once cirrus from afternoon convection dissipates. The one
exception may be some light patchy fog in areas that received
rainfall earlier and have added a mention of MVFR conditions
between 08-12z at both terminals to account for this.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....Serre
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP.24