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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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456 FXUS64 KHUN 161050 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 550 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A low chance (20% or less) of showers has been added to the forecast this morning south of the TN River to accommodate the ongoing convection in portions of Cullman county and south of our County Warning Area. This convection is a result of a weak convergence boundary along the western edge of the Bermuda High and slightly stronger SW winds westward along the Mississippi Valley with enough instability present to allow some lightning development as well as moderate to heavy rainfall. These storms are forecast to weaken into the morning hours with little sfc CAPE and weak low level lapse rates to support the ongoing convective development. Otherwise, a low chance (20-30%) of patchy fog is possible this morning throughout the TN Valley- especially in areas that received rainfall Monday and along large bodies of water. Any fog that forms is forecast to dissipate shortly after sunrise. Low- medium chances of showers/storms (20-40%) are forecast to return to the area this afternoon with diurnal heating, bringing risks of frequent lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Despite rain chances and cloud cover, heat will be a large concern today throughout the TN Valley. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 99-106 range. A Heat Advisory is in effect beginning at 10 AM and continuing through 8 PM CDT for counties along and westward of I-65. We encourage everyone to stay hydrated, avoid being outdoors during the afternoon hours if possible, and never leave pets or people in vehicles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Tonight, low temperatures drop into the low to mid 70s. Both MSL and HSV are forecast to drop to the mid 70s which could be close to breaking their record for high minimum temperatures for July 17th. HSV`s record is 77 degrees (set in 1932) while MSL`s record is 78 degrees (set in 1980). Therefore, it is safe to say these temperatures are above-normal. Dry weather is forecast overnight before high rain chances (70-80%) return Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley from the northwest. Low- medium chances of showers/storms (30-60%) continue into Friday. During this time, several rounds of showers are forecast to bring a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.7-1.9 range in HREF solutions, nearing the 90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology. Therefore, a low flooding threat is a concern as these continue both throughout the daytime as well as overnight. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of our area in a Marginal (threat level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, meaning there is at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. The forecast rainfall and surplus of cloud cover will allow temperatures to cool off for the remainder of the work week, capping high temperatures in the 80s Thursday and Friday. On Wednesday, high temperatures in the 90s are still forecast with heat indices in the 99-104 range, however, we will be monitoring how early rainfall develops which may mitigate the need for any Heat Products as temperatures would be cooler than currently forecast. Be sure to check back in for the latest forecast information. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Medium-high shower/storm chances continue through the weekend as the aforementioned front is forecast to stall to our southeast, allowing higher rain chances in our southeastern counties (Cullman, Marshall, Dekalb, Jackson) Friday before lifting back northward due to high pressure off the east coast of Florida. High temperatures in the 80s continue during this time and the need for any Heat Products is not expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at both KMSL and KHSV, however, a PROB30 group exists this afternoon at KHSV for potential MVFR conditions due to lowered visibilities as a result of showers. There is a low chance (20% or less) of showers impacting KMSL this afternoon, however, confidence is too low to include any mention in the official TAF package. Therefore, amendments may be needed. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>007-016. TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ096. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...HC