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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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580 FXUS64 KHUN 181053 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 553 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Patchy, dense fog has developed in portions of northeastern AL with the assistance of clear skies and calm winds. Visibilities are forecast to continue decreasing through the area with the arrival of storms moving through north-central AL along an outflow boundary this morning. Clearing behind this boundary will allow a low chance (20-30%) of patchy fog throughout the remaining areas of northern AL. If this fog becomes more widespread and/or dense in nature, an SPS or Dense Fog Advisory may be considered. Any fog that forms is forecast to dissipate shortly after sunrise (by around 9 AM CDT). Today, medium to high chances of showers/storms (40-60%) are forecast once again as a frontal boundary stalls to our southeast. Any storm that forms will be capable of producing lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Due to the multiple rounds of showers/storms, a low end flooding threat exist today. The Weather Prediction Center has almost our entire forecast area outlined in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall outlook (threat level 1/4) meaning there is at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance through Friday morning. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to get warnings and avoid driving in flooded roads. The rain and ongoing cloud cover through the day brings continued relief from the heat as highs will be capped in the upper 80s with heat indices in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Showers/storms remain in the forecast through the short-term, with medium-high chances daily. Due to the front stalling southeastward of our area, higher rain chances remain south of the Tennessee river. Rain chances are forecast to peak during the afternoon/evening hours, aided by diurnal heating, but are possible during both the daytime and nighttime hours with multiple rounds forecast. Lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall, and gusty winds will be threats with any strong storm that forms through the weekend. In addition to this, a low end flooding threat continues to be possible. WPC has placed most of our area in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall outlook (threat level 1/4) Friday morning into Saturday morning meaning there is at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Due to the weak shear in place, severe weather is not forecast at this time. However, we encourage everyone to check back in for forecast updates as we approach this weekend. Highs during this time are forecast to peak in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s-70s. Heat indices will continue to remain below 100, reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Sunday evening, an upper level longwave trough will be the main focus as it extends from the Great Lakes to the southeastern Plains. A subtropical ridge over the Central Atlantic will keep this trough in place through the mid week. This will allow the Tennessee Valley to remain in a favorable environment for multiple rounds of rainfall as southwesterly flow aloft moves over the area, bringing PVA. PWATs in the 1.8-2.0" are forecast in the LREF 50th percentile range, which would near or exceed the 90th percentile sounding climatology per BMX. Any storms that form during this time will likely be efficient rainfall producers and bring a continued threat for flooding. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Vicinity showers are forecast to continue near KHSV this morning, however, VFR conditions will prevail. A medium chance for MVFR conditions is possible this afternoon as lowered ceilings and visibilities accompany shower/storm chances at both KMSL and KHSV, which have been added as TEMPO groups between around 19-22Z. VFR conditions are set to return by 03-04Z this evening, however, a low chance of MVFR conditions is possible at KHSV early Friday morning due to increased thunderstorm chances returning and bringing lowered ceilings and visibilities back to the airport. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...HC