150
FXUS64 KHUN 182326
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Storms have been slow to fire in our area likely prohibited by the
mostly overcast conditions across the CWA. With some scattered
showers popping up as of 1 PM on radar, expect coverage to slowly
increase throughout the afternoon with slightly better chances
for storms in NE AL where clearer skies have allowed for
additional destabilization. The incredibly moist low level profile
will continue a risk for heavy rainfall with around 1000 J/KG of
CAPE contributing to a risk of gusty winds and frequent lightning
with any storms as the cold front progresses SE.

Storms should decrease in coverage after sunset with 20-30% rain
chances being maintained overnight. Calm winds and the moist low
levels will pose a decent chance for fog development during the
early morning hours. Best chances for fog will be in low lying
areas and along water ways.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Without much clearing expected Friday morning, any fog that
develops overnight may linger into the day. Rain chances pick
back up Friday afternoon as the cold front lifts slightly north
into our area. This will begin a wet trend through the short term
forecast. Each afternoon will hold medium to high rain chances
(50-90%) along with similar environmental parameters supportive
of a risk for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning
each afternoon. Those planning on spending time outside this
weekend should remain weather aware and make sure to have multiple
ways to receive warnings.

As a byproduct of prolonged higher rain chances, temps will be
significantly cooler. High temps are forecast to remain below 90
degrees through the short term forecast with overnight lows near
70 degrees. Dew points will remain in the mid 60s and low 70s.
This will contribute to our moist low levels and support fog
development each night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Sunday evening, an upper level longwave trough will be the main
focus as it extends from the Great Lakes to the southeastern Plains.
A subtropical ridge over the Central Atlantic will keep this
trough in place through the mid week. This will allow the
Tennessee Valley to remain in a favorable environment for multiple
rounds of rainfall as southwesterly flow aloft moves over the
area, bringing PVA. PWATs in the 1.8-2.0" are forecast in the LREF
50th percentile range, which would near or exceed the 90th
percentile sounding climatology per BMX. Any storms that form
during this time will likely be efficient rainfall producers and
bring a continued threat for flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

What few lingering shra remain across the area should begin to
diminish with the onset of the evening hrs. VFR conds are then
expected into Fri, as mid/high clouds remain in place over much
of the region. There is a chc for some patchy -br early Fri
morning, although the prob is not high enough to include in the
TAFs attm. Additional shra/tsra are expected heading more into the
afternoon and a PROB30 group has been added later in the period.
Light/var winds are also generally expected thru Fri afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...09