043
FXUS64 KHUN 190226
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
926 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 926 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A weak front continues to move slowly southeast and currently
stretches from just north of Columbus, MS to southwestern Madison
county (AL) into southeastern TN. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms continue to develop near the frontal boundary near
the I-65 corridor. This activity is mainly producing heavy
rainfall and some lightning.

Models tend to stall it south of the Tennessee River. This will
likely keep isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
in the forecast overnight in those areas particularly. Cloud
cover and some winds around 5 mph will likely keep fog a bay this
evening, but some very patchy fog is not out of the question in
isolated locations. Winds will likely drop off towards midnight
and into the daybreak hours on Friday. Lower dewpoints behind the
front will likely advect south into northern Alabama overnight as
well. This drier air will likely keep fog at bay Friday morning.
However, in our southern counties, where dewpoints remain higher
and winds become light, some patchy fog may develop. Temperatures
with the drier air moving into the area will likely drop into the
mid 60s north of the Tennessee River. Further south, lows should
only drop into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Without much clearing expected Friday morning, any fog that
develops overnight may linger into the day. Rain chances pick
back up Friday afternoon as the cold front lifts slightly north
into our area. This will begin a wet trend through the short term
forecast. Each afternoon will hold medium to high rain chances
(50-90%) along with similar environmental parameters supportive
of a risk for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning
each afternoon. Those planning on spending time outside this
weekend should remain weather aware and make sure to have multiple
ways to receive warnings.

As a byproduct of prolonged higher rain chances, temps will be
significantly cooler. High temps are forecast to remain below 90
degrees through the short term forecast with overnight lows near
70 degrees. Dew points will remain in the mid 60s and low 70s.
This will contribute to our moist low levels and support fog
development each night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Sunday evening, an upper level longwave trough will be the main
focus as it extends from the Great Lakes to the southeastern Plains.
A subtropical ridge over the Central Atlantic will keep this
trough in place through the mid week. This will allow the
Tennessee Valley to remain in a favorable environment for multiple
rounds of rainfall as southwesterly flow aloft moves over the
area, bringing PVA. PWATs in the 1.8-2.0" are forecast in the LREF
50th percentile range, which would near or exceed the 90th
percentile sounding climatology per BMX. Any storms that form
during this time will likely be efficient rainfall producers and
bring a continued threat for flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

What few lingering shra remain across the area should begin to
diminish with the onset of the evening hrs. VFR conds are then
expected into Fri, as mid/high clouds remain in place over much
of the region. There is a chc for some patchy -br early Fri
morning, although the prob is not high enough to include in the
TAFs attm. Additional shra/tsra are expected heading more into the
afternoon and a PROB30 group has been added later in the period.
Light/var winds are also generally expected thru Fri afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...09