616
FXUS64 KHUN 210644
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
144 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

A very similar day to Saturday is ahead for today. The best low
level convergence and upper level shortwave support will reside
over middle and southwest TN into northern MS, and a deeper feed
of moisture will occur from southern LA into southern and central
AL. The suggested blends appear to be too high with PoPs/areal
coverage again today, so will adjust down a bit into the medium
chance range. Expect high temperatures to be in the upper 80s to
around 90 over NC/NW AL into southern middle TN, with middle 80s
further southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Expect another diurnal decline in showers and thunderstorms this
evening with loss of daytime heating. The weather pattern does not
change much over the next few days. So similarly, will keep
medium chances going Monday with highs again in the middle 80s to
around 90. The models indicate an incoming shortwave and 8h and
5h flow increasing a bit by Tuesday. Thus, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will go up over the area, especially during peak
heating. Thus, have kept the categorical/high chances in for
Tuesday. Some training of showers and thunderstorms may occur on
Tuesday as well with unidirectional flow, which could elevate the
risk of excessive rain in some cases. Temperatures will also be
tempered a bit by more expansive rain and cloud cover, so have
kept highs in the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

A lower level southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
feed deep lower level moisture across much of the SE CONUS this week.
This moisture and precipitable water amounts staying around 2", will
help continue an unsettled weather pattern. Daytime heating of this
moist atmosphere will produce higher instability values, especially
in the afternoon, and lead to showers and thunderstorms. Have stayed
with a similar forecast as the past couple of days, with the higher
rain chances in the afternoon and evening. But have also trimmed PoPs
that are too high for convection without a focus for development or a
more organized system. PoPs that were categorical (75-100%) were
lowered into the likely (55-74%) range. Overall storm strength with
weak focusing areas should remain "general", with the usual gusty
outflow winds, heavy downpours, and lightning. In the past, have
seen electrically active storms in such moist environments.

With more clouds than sun and a moist atmosphere, daily high
temperatures for the period should remain below seasonable norms.
Highs on Wed/Thu should only warm into the low/mid 80s, mid/upper
80s Fri, and upper 80s near 90 on Sat. Lows will cool into the upper
60s to lower 70s. For reference, normal high/low temperatures for
this period are around 92/71 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Isolated -SHRA and TSRA will be possible through the overnight
hours. Lower ceilings of 020-025agl (MVFR) are expected to develop
by 08Z, with patchy BR with visibility of 3-5SM also possible. By
14Z, VFR conditions should resume with lower clouds scattering or
lifting. By 18Z, scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA will
redevelop. Have included VCTS at KHSV where the probability is
higher.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17