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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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819 FXUS64 KHUN 170513 AAC AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS 1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 In wake of the afternoon convection, tranquil weather is prevailing across the Tennessee Valley this evening. Scattered to broken decks of cirrus still linger across the region this evening, but expect these clouds will dissipate after Midnight, resulting in mostly clear conditions in most locations late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Given the clear/calm conditions, some patchy fog may develop in locations where rainfall occurred. Cant rule out a stray shower or two in north Alabama early Wednesday morning from any lingering residual outflow boundaries, but a vast majority of the area will remain dry. It will remain mild and muggy with overnight lows only slipping to the mid 70s in most locations. Only minor tweaks were made to the forecast as everything remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A cold front currently stretching from the western Great Lakes SW into Kansas will be the next major player in our forecast over the next few days. This front will take some time to sink southeast. However, disturbances ahead of the front will likely push far enough south late tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours, to produce more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across northern Alabama. During the morning hours, there should be some sunshine though. This will likely allow highs to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s later in the day, despite increasing cloud cover and shower/storm chances. Shear will again be very weak. Again though high PWAT values, decent low level lapse rates, and moderate instability will likely allow for some strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds to around 50 mph, frequent lightning, and maybe pea size hail in strongest storms. The bulk of the activity should develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. Not looking like much of a break in rainfall and storms Wednesday night. Some isolated flash flooding is not out of the question. Despite some humid conditions (Dewpoints in the 72 to 76 degree range), the lower temperatures should keep heat index concerns at bay. The front seems to slow down a bit late Wednesday night into Thursday, before pushing more quickly southeast Thursday night. Given the high PWAT values and strong forcing, this could extend a flash flooding/minor flooding threat into the day on Thursday. At this time, shear remains weak. So mainly strong storms are expected to develop. This will keep high temperatures quite a bit cooler, in the mid to upper 80s both Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday night, rainfall chances drop significantly. In later updates, these rain chances may be able to be taken out. For now though, there is some disagreement how far south the front moves. Therefore kept low chance in the forecast into Friday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely increase again, as the front moves northward Friday afternoon into Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Medium-high shower/storm chances continue through the weekend as the aforementioned front is forecast to stall to our southeast, allowing higher rain chances in our southeastern counties (Cullman, Marshall, Dekalb, Jackson) Friday before lifting back northward due to high pressure off the east coast of Florida. High temperatures in the 80s continue during this time and the need for any Heat Products is not expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category overnight, with only high-clouds expected to go along with some patchy/light BR in a few locations. Late in the period, medium to high chances for SHRA/TSRA are forecast at both sites during the afternoon hours. Should a storm impact either terminal, localized MVFR conditions may develop due to reduced visibility and ceilings. Have included a PROB30 btwn18-00Z to account for this, and AWWs/amendments may also be needed during this time frame. Additional storms may develop invof the terminals during the evening hours as a frontal boundary slips southward into the region, but due to uncertainty in timing/coverage, we have only included VCTS at this time. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAN SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...70/DD