881
FXUS64 KHUN 120821
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
321 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The airmass that brought slightly cooler/drier air to the area
over the last couple of days will begin to retreat today as a
ridge in the SW CONUS begins to expand eastward. Temps appear
likely to rise into the low/mid 90s during the afternoon for the
majority of the area. A vort max instigating shower/storms along
the KS/MO border early this morning will move eastward and keep
any organized activity well to our north today. A stray small
shower could not be ruled out, but chances for any measurable
precip today will be less than ~5% under mostly sunny to partly
cloudy sky conditions. With dew point temperatures in the 60s
during peak heating, heat indices should top out in the upr 90s to
near 100. A Heat Advisory will not be needed today, nevertheless,
those prone to heat susceptibility should keep precautionary
measures in mind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The main weather impact through Monday will be the building heat
as an upr ridge over the SW CONUS expands eastward during the
period. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will likely climb
into the mid/upr 90s at most locations, and even further on
Sunday and Monday, possibly eclipsing 100 degrees at some
locations. Although dew point values will probably remain in the
60s, especially during daytime mixing, heat indices may exceed
Heat Advisory criteria on Sunday and again on Monday, with values
in excess of 105F at some locations. With a largely diffluent low-
lvl flow pattern evident during the period, and a continuing lack
of significant forcing, any shower activity is expected to be
minimal during the period, with mostly dry weather anticipated.
Given the relatively low dew points expected and with developing
drought conditions already in place, nighttime temperatures were
lowered a little towards the lower end of the NBM guidance
envelope.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A slight chance in the pattern may begin to occur on Tuesday
stretching into the rest of the week as the ridge weakens and a
new trough begins to take shape in the East CONUS. However, this
will not thwart temperature rises on Tuesday as the main axis of
the warm plume of air emanating out of the SW will still be in
place across the region. Max daytime temps could still reach or
exceed 100F degrees on Tuesday, with heat indices climbing even
higher as dew points begin to increase. However, what may help to
inhibit temp rises will be an increase in cloud cover and the
potential for showers due to the increased moisture. POPs will
only be in the 20-30% range on Tuesday, but will increase into the
50-60% range for Wednesday and Thursday as a weak cold front
moves into the area from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions expected at KHSV and KMSL terminals over the next
24 hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...KDW