Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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009 FXUS64 KHUN 121121 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 300 AM AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The airmass that brought slightly cooler/drier air to the area over the last couple of days will begin to retreat today as a ridge in the SW CONUS begins to expand eastward. Temps appear likely to rise into the low/mid 90s during the afternoon for the majority of the area. A vort max instigating shower/storms along the KS/MO border early this morning will move eastward and keep any organized activity well to our north today. A stray small shower could not be ruled out, but chances for any measurable precip today will be less than ~5% under mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky conditions. With dew point temperatures in the 60s during peak heating, heat indices should top out in the upr 90s to near 100. A Heat Advisory will not be needed today, nevertheless, those prone to heat susceptibility should keep precautionary measures in mind. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The main weather impact through Monday will be the building heat as an upr ridge over the SW CONUS expands eastward during the period. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will likely climb into the mid/upr 90s at most locations, and even further on Sunday and Monday, possibly eclipsing 100 degrees at some locations. Although dew point values will probably remain in the 60s, especially during daytime mixing, heat indices may exceed Heat Advisory criteria on Sunday and again on Monday, with values in excess of 105F at some locations. With a largely diffluent low- lvl flow pattern evident during the period, and a continuing lack of significant forcing, any shower activity is expected to be minimal during the period, with mostly dry weather anticipated. Given the relatively low dew points expected and with developing drought conditions already in place, nighttime temperatures were lowered a little towards the lower end of the NBM guidance envelope. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A slight chance in the pattern may begin to occur on Tuesday stretching into the rest of the week as the ridge weakens and a new trough begins to take shape in the East CONUS. However, this will not thwart temperature rises on Tuesday as the main axis of the warm plume of air emanating out of the SW will still be in place across the region. Max daytime temps could still reach or exceed 100F degrees on Tuesday, with heat indices climbing even higher as dew points begin to increase. However, what may help to inhibit temp rises will be an increase in cloud cover and the potential for showers due to the increased moisture. POPs will only be in the 20-30% range on Tuesday, but will increase into the 50-60% range for Wednesday and Thursday as a weak cold front moves into the area from the north. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conditions expected at KHSV and KMSL terminals over the next 24 hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION...KDW