Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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921 FXUS64 KHUN 041742 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Any showers or storms that developed this afternoon will quickly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating tonight. This should make for ideal firework viewing conditions. Another muggy night is in store as overnight temperatures will only drop down into the mid to upper 70s. As the upper level ridge that has been centered over the TN Valley for the last few days begins to shift east, a cold front slowly drops down from the northwest. While the front is not expected to arrive until Friday, some hires guidance suggests some showers and storms may develop out ahead of it bringing a low chance for precip into NW AL by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 As the cold front pushes through the area on Friday, expect coverage in showers and storms to increase steadily through the late morning into the afternoon. High chances (70-90%) of thunderstorms are forecast during the peak heating hours tomorrow afternoon. The good news is that this potentially could bring some much needed rain to the area. Severe storms are not expected given poor lapse rates and meager amounts of shear. The Heat Advisory remains in effect on Friday. Despite rain chances, afternoon temperatures are forecast to rise into the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This brings peak heat index values between 100F and 109F. There is some uncertainty if we will meet criteria in portions of the area due to increased cloud cover, but at this time no changes to the headline will be made. Post cold front airmass is both slightly cooler and drier. While afternoon temperatures still reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the dewpoints will be much more bearable, mixing out into the mid 60s in the afternoon. Some models suggest that the front will not entirely clear the forecast area and stall in central AL. As a result, low chances for showers and storms were maintained in our southeastern zones. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 On Sunday, upper level ridging looks to be stretched over the Atlantic and down through the Deep South. A large upper trough will dominate the central CONUS but also extend up into the Ohio Valley and Canada. This leaves the local area in southwesterly flow aloft, and this will continue through at least Monday night until the trough finally starts to swing to the east/northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface front that is slated to move south of the area on Saturday is expected to meander over this region through early next week. Another cold front is then anticipated to progress over the Ohio Valley by midweek. For sensible weather, after a dry day on Sunday, daily chances (generally low to medium, 30-60%) of showers and storms are forecast through midweek. This is especially true during peak heating (afternoon hours). Sufficient instability for thunderstorm development is anticipated, along with shear around 20 knots. While severe weather is not expected at this time, heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds will all be possible in any thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally, the chances of showers/storms and amount of cloud cover will cause temperatures to be slightly cooler than we`ve seen this week, with values in the lower to mid 90s Sunday and Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Expecting lows to mainly be in the upper 60s lower 70s each night. Even though the forecast calls for a bit cooler conditions, it will still be warm (especially early next week). Please continue to be cautious if you have outdoor plans. Take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions with winds out of the SW are expected through the TAF period. The only concern will be typical summertime convection that may pop up over the terminals this afternoon. Have added a tempo group with MVFR conditions to account for this scenario. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...GH