100
FXUS64 KHUN 141836
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
136 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Diurnal showers and storms have begun to pop up across the TN
Valley and will continue to propagate across the area through the
remainder of the day. With sufficient low level lapse rates and
DCAPE near 1000 J/KG, gusty winds and frequent lightning will be
the primary threat for any storms that do develop. Storms will
begin to deteriorate as the sun sets with mostly clear conditions
building in for the overnight hours. Dew points and low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s will make for muggy overnight
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The return of southerly flow will prompt a gradual increase in
moisture and increase rain and storm chances across the TN Valley
through the short term forecast period. Monday and Tuesday will
continue the current trends of hot muggy mornings and scatter
diurnally driven rain and storm chances each afternoon. Current
heat index forecast have portions of the area at or above heat
advisory criteria however timing and coverage of storms each day
will likely significantly impact high forecast temps being
realized. Regardless of reaching criteria or not, it will be hot
and humid across the CWA. Make sure to continue to practice proper
sun and heat safety.

Wednesday will begin a much welcomed cooler and wetter pattern.
Afternoon rain chances will increase to 50-70% as a cold front
approaches the area. Some storms may become strong to severe
however without significant shear, widespread severe storms are
not expected. Depending on the timing of the front, Wednesday
could still see heat index values well over 100 yielding one more
day of heat risk concerns. The good news is much cooler temps
will filter in behind the front and are seen in the long term
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Models are hinting at the aforementioned front stalling to our
southeast, continuing to bring rainfall to portions of our area
and some relief from the ongoing drought conditions. Due to this,
at least a low chance of rain was maintained through the long term
period, with higher chances in the afternoon to early evening
hours. The front should provide slight relief from the ongoing
heat, as well. High temperatures during the long term period are
forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the remainder of the
TAF period at both terminals. There is a low chance (20%) for
scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Due to low
confidence in timing and coverage, this was not included in the
TAF. Amendments will be made to the TAF if necessary.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD