460
FXUS64 KHUN 150558
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 825 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Another hot day was felt across the Tennessee Valley where some
sites saw temperatures soar into the triple digits. Diurnal
thunderstorm activity has also come to an end with the setting
sun. For the rest of the night, expect temperatures to drop down
into the low to mid 70s by daybreak under partly cloudy skies.
While fog development appears unlikely given recent dry pattern if
any were to develop it would be near locations that saw some much
needed rain this afternoon...such as portions of Cullman and N.
Lauderdale counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The return of southerly flow will prompt a gradual increase in
moisture and increase rain and storm chances across the TN Valley
through the short term forecast period. Monday and Tuesday will
continue the current trends of hot muggy mornings and scatter
diurnally driven rain and storm chances each afternoon. Current
heat index forecast have portions of the area at or above heat
advisory criteria however timing and coverage of storms each day
will likely significantly impact high forecast temps being
realized. Regardless of reaching criteria or not, it will be hot
and humid across the CWA. Make sure to continue to practice proper
sun and heat safety.

Wednesday will begin a much welcomed cooler and wetter pattern.
Afternoon rain chances will increase to 50-70% as a cold front
approaches the area. Some storms may become strong to severe
however without significant shear, widespread severe storms are
not expected. Depending on the timing of the front, Wednesday
could still see heat index values well over 100 yielding one more
day of heat risk concerns. The good news is much cooler temps
will filter in behind the front and are seen in the long term
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Models are hinting at the aforementioned front stalling to our
southeast, continuing to bring rainfall to portions of our area
and some relief from the ongoing drought conditions. Due to this,
at least a low chance of rain was maintained through the long term
period, with higher chances in the afternoon to early evening
hours. The front should provide slight relief from the ongoing
heat, as well. High temperatures during the long term period are
forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Recent trends in IR satellite data suggest that a broken mid-
level As layer will persist across the region for much of the
early morning period, providing VFR cigs arnd 15 kft atop few-sct
Cu. Although a few light SHRA will be possible to the east of a
slow-moving disturbance across the Mid-South region, we have not
included VCSH due to limited coverage of this activity. Patchy
BR/FG may also develop btwn 8-13Z in valleys and near large bodies
of water, but we have also elected to not include this in the
official TAFs. There are indications that the As layer will begin
to erode later this morning, permitting rapid destabilization of
the boundary layer and development of sct aftn SHRA/TSRA that
should dissipate within a few hours of sunset this evening. This
activity could impact the terminals btwn 20-02Z, when PROB30
groups for vsby reductions have been included. Prevailing sfc
winds will remain from the SW at speeds of 5-10 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD