Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
144 FXUS66 KHNX 141033 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 333 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Confidence remains high for the stretch of near-normal temperatures for the remainder of this week into the weekend. Below average temperatures are expected for central California on Sunday. 2. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT this morning for the Mojave Slopes and Indian Wells Valley. West winds 20 to 30 miles per hour with gusts up to 50 miles per hour are expected. 3. Despite relative humidity values improving through the remainder of the week, the risk of grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds.The risk is most evident in eastern Kern County due to elevated winds and relative humidity less than 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonal conditions will continue over the next few days as a zonal upper level pattern remains dormant over central California. Temperatures this afternoon through Friday will be near average for this time of year, but will gradually fall below normal towards the weekend. This is due in large part to an upper level trough dropping southward into the Pacific northwest region. Cyclonic flow around the trough will transport cooler air aloft from the north Pacific to the western United States. Here are the probabilities for maximum temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees each day through Sunday across the region. Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Bakersfield 75% 50% 75% 55% 40% Coalinga 90% 65% 75% 45% 30% Fresno 75% 45% 50% 35% 25% Hanford 80% 50% 60% 45% 30% Madera 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% Merced 50% 35% 30% 20% 15% Oakhurst 0% 0% 5% 4% 5% Ridgecrest 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Visalia 85% 70% 80% 70% 55% This upper level pattern will also cause elevated surface winds each afternoon through much of central California, and especially in the Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes. Ensemble guidance from the National Blend of Models expresses a 30 to 60 percent probability for wind gusts greater than 30 mph each day for this area. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Mojave Slopes and Indian Wells Valley until 5 AM PDT this morning due to expected winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. The aforementioned trough building off the coast is expected to bring an increase in surface moisture as well which will help mitigate the fire risk for the region. However, dry fuels remain persistent across central California which, coupled with increased winds, can cause fires to initiate and quickly spread. This is especially evident for eastern Kern County where relative humidity is expected less than 10 percent, even with the upcoming synoptic pattern. Extended cluster analysis shows good model consensus that this upper level trough will remain centered off the coast of the western United States through Tuesday, continuing the conditions listed above for much of central California. A weaker upper level ridge has the opportunity to build in during the middle of next week, resulting in a slight warming trend; however, early indications from NBM ensemble output suggest less than a 40 percent chance to reach or exceed 100 degrees by next weekend. This is further backed up by cluster analysis showing favorable consensus towards the trough restrengthening towards the end of next week. && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ337-338. && $$ public/aviation...SM IDSS.............BSO weather.gov/hanford