Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
070 FXUS66 KHNX 141723 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1023 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Confidence remains high for the stretch of near-normal temperatures for the remainder of this week into the weekend. Below average temperatures are expected for central California on Sunday. 2. A Wind Advisory was issued and will be in effect from 3 PM PDT today to 5 AM PDT Thursday for the Mojave Slopes and Indian Wells Valley due to gusts up to 50 mph. 3. Despite relative humidity values improving through the remainder of the week, the risk of grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds.The risk is most evident in eastern Kern County due to elevated winds and relative humidity less than 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonal conditions will continue over the next few days as a zonal upper level pattern remains dominant over central California. Temperatures this afternoon through Friday will be near average for this time of year, but will gradually fall below normal towards the weekend. This is due in large part to an upper level trough dropping southward into the Pacific northwest region. High temperatures today throughout the San Joaquin Valley and the Coastal Range are in the mid to upper-90s. Here are the probabilities for maximum temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees each day through Sunday across the region. Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Bakersfield 76% 37% 74% 50% 41% Coalinga 92% 72% 79% 58% 31% Fresno 87% 68% 79% 58% 42% Hanford 87% 58% 74% 51% 31% Madera 51% 37% 37% 21% 09% Merced 52% 37% 37% 18% 08% Oakhurst 0% 0% 5% 3% 2% Ridgecrest 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Visalia 64% 47% 58% 43% 28% Similar to the past couple of days, the trough will continue to bring cool westerly wind through our region. Strongest winds will occur in the late afternoon to early mornings. The strongest winds are around the Mojave Slopes in Kern County with 60 to 84 percent probability of gusts over 30 mph along Highway 14 tonight. Higher resolution models are showing up to 80-90 percent probability of gusts greater than 45 mph in that area. Sustained winds are expected to be between 15 and 25 mph overnight. A Wind Advisory was issued today and will be effective at 3 PM PDT today to 5 AM PDT Thursday. High profile vehicles should exercise caution when driving along highways 14, 178 below Walker Pass and Highway 58 below Tehachapi Pass. Dry fuels remain persistent across central California which, coupled with increased winds, can cause fires to initiate and quickly spread. This is especially evident for eastern Kern County where relative humidity is expected less than 10 percent, even with the upcoming synoptic pattern. After the weekend, cluster data is showing the upper level ridge strengthening and shifting slightly to the West. This means there could be a small warming trend in temperatures in the middle of next week. However, the National Blend of Models, for Wednesday, August 21st, shows only a 10 percent probability for maximum temperatures over 101 for the San Joaquin Valley. For the Kern County Desert, the 90th percentile for maximum temperatures is higher at 105-108 Deg F. After Wednesday, cluster analysis is showing a favorable consensus towards the trough restrengthening towards the end of next week. There is variability in whether the trough will strengthen enough to overcome the ridge`s influence over the area. The CPC`s 8-14 outlook continues to show leaning above normal to near normal for our area. && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Park aviation....AS weather.gov/hanford