Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
927 FXUS66 KHNX 151930 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1230 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Confidence remains high for the stretch of near-normal temperatures for the remainder of this week into the weekend. Below average temperatures are expected for central California on Sunday. 2. Despite relative humidity values improving through the remainder of the week, the risk of grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds.The risk is most evident in eastern Kern County due to elevated winds and relative humidity less than 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... For today until Friday afternoon, there is a zonal flow throughout the West Coast. Westerly winds tonight in the Mojave Slopes and the Indian Wells Valley remain elevated, although not as fast as the past couple of days. Winds are forecasted to have gusts between 30-35 mph with sustained winds of 20 mph after sunset. Although there conditions do not call for a Wind Advisory, high profile vehicles, especially along State Route 14, should proceed with caution. After Friday, the low pressure trough that has been building in the Northeast Pacific will shift into the West Coast. Along the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures will remain normal and drop slightly by 1-3 degrees Saturday and Sunday as the trough settles into the West Coast. Cluster ensembles are in agreement that near-normal condition for the weekend, growing confidence for this cooling trend. Here are the probabilities for maximum temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees each day through Monday across the region. Sunday should have the coolest temperatures overall, with highs between 90 and 94 deg F. Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Bakersfield 49% 72% 44% 24% 60% Coalinga 76% 86% 49% 21% 60% Fresno 76% 86% 49% 24% 66% Hanford 61% 72% 44% 21% 54% Madera 46% 51% 13% 07% 31% Merced 39% 51% 10% 07% 31% Oakhurst 0% 4% 5% 0% 4% Ridgecrest 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Visalia 49% 62% 35% 21% 52% Due to cyclonic flow around the trough, there are breezier and cooler conditions expected for the Valley. Merced and Mariposa County, thus are expected to see winds between 15-20 mph tonight and tomorrow evening. One high resolution cluster shows relative humidity of over 40 percent north of Yosemite NP. With the increased winds, the worst case scenario is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms on Saturday night. But the favored forecast should suggest a dry scenario with no thunderstorm near Yosemite NP. Dry fuels remain persistent across central California which, coupled with increased winds, can cause fires to initiate and quickly spread. This is especially evident for eastern Kern County where relative humidity is expected less than 10 percent, even with the upcoming synoptic pattern. && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Park aviation....AS weather.gov/hanford