Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
584 FXUS66 KHNX 160922 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 222 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Confidence remains high for temperatures to be near-normal today, slightly below normal this weekend, and then near-normal again next week. 2. Despite increased relative humidity values, the risk of grass fires continues with breezy afternoon winds. The risk is highest in eastern Kern County due to elevated winds and relative humidity less than 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures on Thursday topped out right around climatological averages for this time of the year with mid to upper 90s across the San Joaquin Valley. The synoptic pattern featured an upper ridge positioned over the Desert Southwest with an upper trough dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will dig out a closed upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon while the upper ridge nudges a little eastward over New Mexico. The flow aloft begins to shift from zonal to more southwest but remains dry. Temperatures are expected to change little today with near-normal highs forecast once again. The upper low deepens over the weekend allowing for some slight synoptic cooling across central California. Sunday is forecast to be the least hot day with probabilities for high temperatures less than 95 degrees across the SJ Valley ranging from 85 to 95 percent. Ensembles favor the upper low shifting a little north early next week and temperatures rebounding to near-normal once again on Monday. Little changes are forecast through Thursday. Onshore flow will continue with breezy conditions developing in the afternoon and evening each day. Wind prone areas in eastern Kern County will see the highest winds speeds. Probabilities for wind gusts greater than 30 mph are up to 66 percent, mainly for the Mojave Slopes. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford