Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
657 FXUS66 KHNX 161929 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1229 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Confidence remains high for temperatures to be near-normal today, slightly below normal this weekend, and then near-normal again next week. 2. Despite increased relative humidity values, the risk of grass fires continues with breezy afternoon winds. The risk is highest in eastern Kern County due to elevated winds and relative humidity less than 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies across Interior Central California this afternoon with near normal temperatures and light wind. Onshore upper flow is aiding in keep temperatures down to near normal as an upper low off the Alaska Panhandle sinks south along the Pacific Northwest coast line over the next few days dominating the weather pattern for the weekend and week ahead. The aforementioned upper low continues to sink south on Saturday down to the southwest Oregon coast turning the flow more southwest across the Golden State. This results in temperatures falling a couple degrees and this trends through the remainder of the weekend. Saturday the probability of exceedance of 95 degrees (PoE), as a rough benchmark of normal temperatures for this time of year, ranges from 15 to 45 percent north of Fresno and 45 to 80 percent Fresno south. Monday through Thursday the upper low retreats north just enough for the ridge over the south central CONUS to drift west enough to bring temperatures back to near normal for the region. The PoE of 95 degrees increases to 35 to 50 percent Fresno north and 50 to 70 percent south of Fresno. Tuesday and Wednesday the PoE of 95 increases to 60 to 85 percent for the San Joaquin Valley as a whole. Thursday and next Friday the upper low over the Pacific Northwest makes a come back turning the flow back into the southwest driving the PoE of 95 degrees down to 25 to 65 percent. The confidence in this pattern is high with the ensemble clusters at 500 MB have a similar handle each on the formation of the upper levels. The minor differences will have only limited impact on temperatures. The flow remains dry with suppressed convective activity. The impact concerns will wind gusts through the normal breezy areas of the western hills and Mojave Slopes. It does raise some elevated concern for Kern County Desert with ongoing fires being aided by low relative humidity and wind through weekend into next week. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ OPS/IDSS...Proton weather.gov/hanford