Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
320 FXUS66 KHNX 172007 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 107 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Confidence remains high for temperatures to be slightly below normal this weekend then near-normal again next week. 2. Despite increased relative humidity values, the risk of grass fires continues with breezy afternoon winds. The risk is highest in eastern Kern County due to elevated winds and relative humidity less than 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... The ridge over the central CONUS will continue locked in place by the upper low over the Pacific Northwest. This is keeping temperature near normal or slight below for Interior Central California. The ridge starts to push back into the Desert Southwest bringing temperatures back to near normal for early next week. Then by the end of the week another upper low dives into Northern California lowering heights over the area and lowering temperatures for next weekend below normal again. The onshore flow will keep the area dry and mostly clear. Relative Humidity will continue low with moderate afternoon winds daily in the normally windy locations. This will keep the chance of grass fire elevated. The 500 MB cluster ensembles are high confidence in the pattern and anomalies for the first four days the the forecast. Into mid-week to next weekend the idea of a cut off or broad trough is projected for the West Coast. The difference is in the anomalies of height to determine the degree of below normal temperatures for the region. Looking at probabilistic data on temperatures for the week ahead the PoE of 95 degrees is a fair bench for climatological readings. Here is the chart for select locations from around the region. Location SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT Madera 4% 40% 65% 45% 10% 4% 10% Merced 10% 50% 70% 65% 15% 5% 15% Fresno 25% 75% 85% 80% 35% 10% 15% Hanford 45% 80% 90% 85% 55% 20% 25% Visalia 35% 70% 80% 80% 45% 15% 20% Coalinga 10% 45% 80% 60% 10% 2% 10% Bakersfield 35% 70% 75% 75% 55% 20% 25% && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ OPS.....Proton IDSS....AS weather.gov/hanford