Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
811 FXUS66 KHNX 121007 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 307 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for much of this week into the weekend. 2. Despite moderating relative humidity values, the risk of grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds. Today and Tuesday will see an increase in winds across Kern County. && .DISCUSSION... This next period of a week or so will feature troughiness over western North America and the far eastern Pacific Ocean. Shortwaves in the trough will keep temperatures cooler, near climatic normals and slightly below. A cutoff upper low develops late on Friday off the Pacific Northwest coastline. This upper low remains near stationary through next Monday. The bottom line is onshore flow through the period. Today through next Monday for Interior Central California features probabilities of exceedance (PoE) of 95 degrees the highest for today and then slowly declining over the next couple of days. The probability of thunderstorms is near zero for the week ahead with the stable flow pattern. 500 MB cluster analysis is fairly confident on the developing cut and temperature and precipitation trends for the region. All in all a bit of a break from summer as scheduled for the Golden State over the next week. Here is matrix of the PoE of 95 degrees this week at selected San Joaquin Valley locations. Location Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Merced 50% 20% 30% 15% 20% 10% 25% Madera 60% 20% 40% 15% 25% 15% 25% Fresno 80% 35% 50% 25% 30% 20% 30% Hanford 90% 45% 60% 35% 40% 25% 35% Visalia 96% 60% 70% 50% 55% 40% 55% Bakersfield 96% 45% 50% 40% 45% 40% 45% && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Operations...Proton IDSS.........DAS weather.gov/hanford