Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
265 FXUS66 KHNX 122023 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 123 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Strong, gusty westerly winds are expected along the Mojave Desert Slopes and Indian Wells Valley late this afternoon and overnight. A Wind Advisory has been issued. 2. Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for much of this week into the weekend. 3. Despite moderating relative humidity values, the risk of grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds. Today and Tuesday will see an increase in winds across eastern Kern County. && .DISCUSSION... The upper ridge that had persisted over the past week bringing well above normal temperatures to the region has finally given way and shifted east over the Southern Plains. An upper trough is situated over the Pacific Northwest with a short wave just off the northern California coast that will shift inland later this evening. The pressure gradient is increasing in response to the approaching short wave and westerly winds are forecast to ramp up across the wind prone areas in eastern Kern County this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Indian Wells Valley from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday morning. Probabilistic guidance is giving Mojave around a 50 percent chance of seeing gusts greater than 45 mph while the area around the Highway 178 & 14 intersection has nearly a 100 percent chance for gusts in excess of 45 mph. Temperatures are trending down around 3 to 5 degrees from this time yesterday as the cooler air mass begins to move in. Highs may still top out at or just above the century mark in parts of the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. A little more cooling is expected Tuesday lowering temperatures to around climatological normals for this time of the year. Little changes are expected the remainder of the week. Ensembles favor an upper low forming off the Pacific Northwest coast on Friday then deepening over the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to nudge down a bit more during the weekend but models struggle with closed upper lows and if it were to shift east or southeast, more cooling could occur. && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ337-338. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford