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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
585 FXUS66 KHNX 131939 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1239 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Confidence remains high for the stretch of near-normal temperatures for the remainder of this week into the weekend. 2. A Wind Advisory was issued and will be effective at 3 PM PDT tonight to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for the Mojave Slopes and Indian Wells Valley, due to elevated wind gusts up to 50 mph. 3. Despite moderating relative humidity values, the risk of grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds. For today, expect increased winds across eastern Kern County. && .DISCUSSION... A trough of low pressure is moving into Northern California with a zonal flow aloft over our forecast area. High temperatures today throughout the San Joaquin Valley and the Coastal Range are in the mid to upper-90s. The probability of exceeding 95 Deg F today is around 73 to 88 percent for the Valley, except for Madera and Merced County, which have probabilities of 44 percent and 52 percent, respectively. In Kern County Desert today, high temperatures have 10-24 percent probability of exceeding 105 Deg F, with average temperatures between 101 and 104. These warm temperatures are expected to remain through the week. A Wind Advisory was issued and will be effective from 3 PM PDT tonight to 5 AM PDT tomorrow for the Mojave Slopes and Indian Wells Valley. This advisory was issued because of elevated westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, especially near the Turbine Fire in the Mojave and the affected highways 14, 58 and 178. If the conditions continue to arise, more wind advisories may be issued this week. High profile vehicles on the affected highways should use caution. As the trough settles in for the rest of the week, the probabilities of exceeding 95 Deg F drops 30-40 percent by Sunday afternoon throughout the Valley. Temperatures in this region are expected to be between 93-97 Deg F, exhibiting near- normal temperatures for this time in the year. Although this week and weekend is dominated by the overhead trough, bringing near to below- normal temperatures, ensemble clusters agrees of a strengthening ridge in the Mid-West and Southern Plains. When the ridge strengthen, the trough is showing to be pushed westward, meaning temperatures could either remain near- normal or lean slightly above normal in our area from Sunday to Wednesday of next week. By Thursday, August 22nd, cluster data shows various outcomes for end of the next week. One scenario, is that the trough will deepen and bring near normal temperatures like current conditions. This would entail slightly breezy and dry air throughout the region. The second scenario, with more agreement between ensembles, is that the ridge could continue to weaken the trough, keeping leaning-above average temperatures through the next weekend. With either situation, confidence is moderate for highs below 104 for the Valley. The CPC`s 8-14 day outlook shows Kern County to have leaning above normal temperatures and near- normal for the rest of our area. && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Park/AS aviation....AS weather.gov/hanford