585
FXUS66 KHNX 131939
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1239 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Confidence remains high for the stretch of near-normal
temperatures for the remainder of this week into the weekend.

2. A Wind Advisory was issued and will be effective at 3 PM PDT
tonight to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for the Mojave Slopes and Indian
Wells Valley, due to elevated wind gusts up to 50 mph.

3. Despite moderating relative humidity values, the risk of
grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds. For today,
expect increased winds across eastern Kern County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A trough of low pressure is moving into Northern
California with a zonal flow aloft over our forecast area. High
temperatures today throughout the San Joaquin Valley and the
Coastal Range are in the mid to upper-90s. The probability of
exceeding 95 Deg F today is around 73 to 88 percent for the
Valley, except for Madera and Merced County, which have
probabilities of 44 percent and 52 percent, respectively. In
Kern County Desert today, high temperatures have 10-24 percent
probability of exceeding 105 Deg F, with average temperatures
between 101 and 104. These warm temperatures are expected to
remain through the week.

A Wind Advisory was issued and will be effective from 3 PM PDT
tonight to 5 AM PDT tomorrow for the Mojave Slopes and Indian
Wells Valley. This advisory was issued because of elevated
westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, especially near the Turbine
Fire in the Mojave and the affected highways 14, 58 and 178. If
the conditions continue to arise, more wind advisories may be
issued this week. High profile vehicles on the affected highways
should use caution.

As the trough settles in for the rest of the week, the
probabilities of exceeding 95 Deg F drops 30-40 percent by
Sunday afternoon throughout the Valley. Temperatures in this
region are expected to be between 93-97 Deg F, exhibiting near-
normal temperatures for this time in the year.

Although this week and weekend is dominated by the overhead
trough, bringing near to below- normal temperatures, ensemble
clusters agrees of a strengthening ridge in the Mid-West and
Southern Plains. When the ridge strengthen, the trough is
showing to be pushed westward, meaning temperatures could either
remain near- normal or lean slightly above normal in our area
from Sunday to Wednesday of next week.

By Thursday, August 22nd, cluster data shows various outcomes
for end of the next week. One scenario, is that the trough will
deepen and bring near normal temperatures like current
conditions. This would entail slightly breezy and dry air
throughout the region. The second scenario, with more agreement
between ensembles, is that the ridge could continue to weaken
the trough, keeping leaning-above average temperatures through
the next weekend. With either situation, confidence is moderate
for highs below 104 for the Valley. The CPC`s 8-14 day outlook
shows Kern County to have leaning above normal temperatures and
near- normal for the rest of our area.

&&


.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will
continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Park/AS
aviation....AS

weather.gov/hanford