029
FXUS64 KHGX 132341
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As expected, a few vort maxes passing through Southeast Texas will
continue to support the next round of showers and storms that are
currently developing to our west and northwest and moving into
portions of Southeast Texas this afternoon through the early evening
hours. Tranquil conditions are expected tonight for most inland
portions with a slight chance of showers along the coastal areas.
Areas of patchy fog could develop over portions of Southeast Texas
during the early morning hours.

On Sunday, a similar pattern looks to occur. Yesterday, the model
solution for Sunday, was too dry in my opinion. Even with vort maxes
moving through, CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg, good mid level lapse
rates, and PWs close to 2.0 inches...the models still favored only
slight chances for isolated showers and storms and that was mainly
over areas east of I-45. Today, models are more aligned with
bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the
day. With the expected cloud coverage and rain, we believe a Heat
Advisory will not be needed once again. However, it will still feel
pretty warm and humid. The highs are expected to be in the low 90s
and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s. Thus, dont let your
guard down on heat impacts if you plan to work or spend time
outdoors. Continue to practice heat safety and drink plenty of
fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, and stay out of the sun.
Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing and try to limit
strenuous activities. Never leave children or pets inside vehicles
unattended. If its too hot for your hands, then it is also too hot
for their paws.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will ebb in the evening to early
night hours. Tranquil conditions to be expected Sunday night with
temperatures decreasing in the mid to upper 70s by early Monday
morning.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The area will remain in a general weakness between mid/upper level ridging
both off to our west and off to our east Monday and Tuesday, and this
should allow for mainly daytime shower and thunderstorm development
with daytime highs in a low to mid 90s range. As the rest of the week
progresses, the ridge aloft out west looks to amplify/strengthen while
a trof develops near our area and off to our east. Expect an increase
in shower and thunderstorm chances/coverage as the rest of the week
progresses, especially heading on into Thursday and Friday as a cold
front sags southward and into our area on Friday. This wetter pattern
chance also supports slightly below normal afternoon high temperatures
as we head to the end of the week.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

TSRA or VCTS will continue across most inland terminals through
01-02Z Sunday. Then, light and variable winds can be expected
through Sunday morning. There is a potential for MVFR conditions
due to low clouds from early morning through mid/late morning,
with the highest probabilities for terminals north of IAH. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon; especially for terminals south of IAH. Winds will
generally remain from the SSE at around 10 knots or less in the
afternoon. Outside some low cigs Sunday morning; VFR conditions
are expected through the period.

JM


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A steady but mainly light onshore flow will prevail through the remainder
of the weekend and into next week. Seas should remain between 1 and
3 feet, and caution flags are not expected for the foreseeable future.
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed
by a slightly drier Monday and Tuesday. Better rain chances come back
into the picture beginning on Wednesday and persist for the remainder
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  93  74  94 /  10  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  92  77  92 /  20  50  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  90  81  89 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...42