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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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890 FXUS64 KHGX 080858 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Hurricane Beryl is making landfall near Matagorda early this morning. Surface observations and bouy data have been indicating peak wind gusts so far up to 89 mph in and around the eye wall (2:06am and 2:12am at the Matagorda Bay Entrance Channel NOS site) and generally in a 50 to 60 mph range in some of the outer rainbands. Tide levels so far have been 2 to 5 feet above normal, but expect these numbers to go even higher during upcoming high tide times. Weak circulation centers have been observed in some of the storms too, and a Tornado Watch is in effect for parts of the area until 10 AM. Perhaps more significantly are the heavy rains that have been occuring with Beryl. As of 340 AM... highest numbers so far have been closer to the circulation center (LCRA rain gauges have recorded 4.89" near Matagorda and 4.49 inches at Sargent) and around 2 to 3 inches with some of the more intense outer rainbands in/around western Galveston County. These feeder bands will continue to work their way inland with possible north-south training eventually setting up near and around the I-45 corridor as the rest of the overnight, morning and early afternoon hours progress. It still looks like some locations in our area are going to end up with 5 to 10 inch rainfall amounts with locally higher numbers possible. Avoid driving this morning if possible. If you have to drive, NEVER NEVER NEVER attempt to drive across flooded roads. Showers/storms will come to an end as the afternoon progresses (generally from south to north) as Beryl weakens and moves north of and out of our area. Much lower winds and decreasing tide levels can be expected with this exit. Enough instability and available moisture will bring another shot of showers and thunderstorms to the area tomorrow with activity generally staying confined to locations closer to the coast and coastal counties. 42 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Pattern setting up (generally in between two mid/upper level ridges) should allow for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms for each day with a majority of what develops staying closer to the coast and coastal counties. High temperatures will be warming back up into the low 90s for much of the area for the rest of the week followed by low to mid 90s toward the end of the week and over the weekend. Low temperatures starting out in a low to mid 70s range for the rest of the week will warm back up into the mid to upper 70s range toward the end of the week and over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Initial outer rainbands from Beryl are starting to penetrate coastal communities in Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston counties tonight. Expect additional rainbands to push northward through the overnight and early morning hours. These outer rainbands will bring squally conditions at times as Beryl continues its northward motion. Beryl is expected to weaken during the day on Monday after it has made landfall, and continues to progress to the north and northeast; however, north/south orientated rain bands could possibly set up that may continue to bring tropical storm conditions to several terminals even as the center of Beryl has moved north of SE Texas. Tropical storm force winds will be developing over the next few hours, with coastal terminals seeing the first initial degradation of conditions. These conditions will spread inland throughout the overnight and early morning hours with sustained winds of (34-73kts with higher gusts possible). Winds should begin to decrease by the late afternoon starting at coastal terminals and extending NE to the remainder of the terminals. CIGS look to lift slower through the afternoon, but should improve through the evening and early overnight periods. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Winds and seas along with the coverage of squalls will continue to increase this evening and into tonight as Beryl approaches the Texas Coast. The National Hurricane Center continues to predict that Beryl will become a category one hurricane before moving ashore late tonight or early tomorrow. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Matagorda Bay along with the nearshore and offshore waters through Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Galveston Bay. Seas of 15-20 feet (occasionally higher) are expected tonight and tomorrow morning along with widespread strong gales. Hurricane force gusts are likely in squalls. Sustained hurricane conditions are expected near where the storm tracks. Winds and seas are expected to gradually improve by tomorrow afternoon. However, lingering heavy squalls will be possible. Once Beryl is out of the way, expect a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms to continue through Friday. Winds are expected to be relatively light with seas generally 2-3 feet. However, locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out in or near any thunderstorm. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Heavy rainfall has made its way inland with Hurricane Beryl continuing to make its trek into Southeast Texas. We`ve already seen 3-5" of rain fall across portions of Matagorda/Brazoria counties where a Flash Flood Warning was issued earlier this morning. In total, we are still expecting widespread totals of 5-10" with locally higher amounts up to 15". This is expected to result in widespread action to minor river flooding with isolated moderate to major river flooding. With high-resolution guidance still favoring rainfall totals of 4-6+" traveling along the I-45 corridor, we are also monitoring for potential bayou/creek flooding as well around the greater Houston metro area. Rainfall rates within the convective bands can reach 2-3" per hour and with these bands moving over the same locations repeatedly, this can quickly result in urban flooding. While these convective bands have been mainly centered around Matagorda and Brazoria counties early this morning, as Beryl travels further inland the flood threat will increase for portions of Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties later this morning. Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 71 90 72 / 100 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 81 74 90 75 / 100 20 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 80 / 100 40 50 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ226-235>237-335>337-436>438. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214- 227-238-300-313-338-439. Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ436>439. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...WFO TAE HYDROLOGY...Batiste MARINE...Luchs TROPICAL...Luchs MESO...24/Wood DSS...Fowler/Wood