007
FXUS64 KHGX 091121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

As Beryl continues heading toward the Illinois-Indiana areas
today (last advisory from the National Hurricane center was issued
yesterday evening), slightly drier air will be working into the
area generally from the north today, and these lower moisture
levels in combination with north surface winds will help to
suppress most convective development inland. Closer to the coast
and offshore, moisture levels might remain deep enough for
possible shower/ thunderstorm development, especially if surface
winds can come back around to the southeast and south as the day
progresses. Lingering moisture in this same area could allow for
more development, late tonight off the coast and during the
daytime/afternoon hours in and around the coastal counties.

Of more interest and concern will be today`s high temperatures
and heat index values. Despite having highs mainly in the lower
90s and heat indexes peaking in a 97-106ish range (all under Heat
Advisory criteria), extensive power outages caused by Hurricane
Beryl have left millions without proper cooling. In the days after
the Houston Derecho, we saw a spike in heat-related illnesses
following the extensive power outages across the metro area. Given
these extenuating circumstances, all of Southeast Texas will be
under a Heat Advisory today/tonight. If you do not have access to
AC/cooling due to power outages, please take all precautions.

Here are some tips to stay cool without power: wear loose/
lightweight clothing, try to stay on the lowest level of your
home, keep your curtains and blinds closed during the daytime to
limit solar radiation entering your home, drink plenty of
water/avoid alcohol and heavy meals, and take a cool shower/bath
to lower skin temperature. For those with generators, please be
sure that they are properly ventilated...NEVER use generators
indoors. In that same vein, NEVER use barbecue grills indoors
either. Be sure to check in on your family, friends, and pets as
well. Stay safe and stay as cool as you can.

42/Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

It`s July and the hot and humid conditions will persist through
the next several days. The low temperatures will be in the low to
mid 70s through the end of the work week, increasing to the mid
to upper 70s during the weekend. The high temperatures during the
long term period will be generally in the the low 90s over areas
north of I-10 and in the upper 80s to low 90s over areas south of
I-10 through the upcoming weekend. The highs will increase into
the mid 90s early next week. With that being said, dewpoints will
likely remain elevated and in the mid to upper 70s. As a result
conditions will continue to feel pretty humid. Heat indices will
likely be between 103-108 deg F and with many without power, heat
impacts could be a concern for many folks out there. Please
continue to heed the advise detailed in the short term discussion
to better protect yourself and your family from the heat impacts.


With respect to rain chances, we may see some isolated to possibly
scattered showers and storms each day, in particular during the
afternoon to early evening hours. So far, Friday and Saturday
seem to be the days of higher rain chances as pulses of moisture
from the Gulf and a weak upper level trough slowly moves across
the Southern Plains.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Seeing some early morning MVFR/IFR ceilings on morning fog satellite
and surface observations in/around the IAH-HOU-SGR area. Will evaluate
right before issuance time and adjust some of the TAFs accordingly.
Otherwise...VFR with mainly N winds increasing to around 5-7 knots today.
Could see some SHRA/TSRA form in the LBX-GLS areas (anything that does
develop will dissipate in the evening). Might also get a seabreeze moving
inland for the coastal areas, and will show this SE wind shift at both
LBX and GLS in the late afternoon. Will carry VFR with light winds overnight
and on through tomorrow morning for all sites.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Seas will continue to subside today. Caution flags will remain
across the bays and Gulf waters through mid morning, mainly for
seas and to give extra precaution for those surveying the waters
and or helping in the restoration process post Hurricane Beryl.

Light onshore winds and seas at 3 feet or less are expected
throughout the next several days. There is a chance for isolated
to scattered showers and storms each day, highest from Thursday to
Saturday, and could result in higher winds and seas in and around
storms.

24

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Hurricane Beryl resulted in widespread amounts of 5-10 inches of
rainfall across Southeast Texas with a couple of spots reaching near
15 inches. This resulted in widespread street flooding in addition
to river/bayou/creek flooding. Things have been on a downward trend
for most of the bayous, but there are a few that are taking a bit
longer to recede especially along Clear Creek. There are numerous
river gauges that are either in or are forecast to go into action to
minor flood stage with a few that are in moderate to major flood
stage. As of ~3am CDT Tuesday morning, the Tres Palacios River at
Midfield is cresting in major flood stage, the West Fork of the San
Jacinto River at Humble is cresting in moderate flood stage, and the
San Bernard River at Boling is on its way to a crest in moderate
flood stage.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
NEVER travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  92  76  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  80  90  80 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...42
HYDROLOGY...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto (24)