541
FXUS64 KHGX 120521
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Before we get into the details of the short term, let`s talk
about the updated heat advisory for tomorrow. We have opted to
remove much of our western CWA from the advisory since the power
outage situation in those counties has improved immensely.
However, the rest of the CWA continues to deal with widespread
outages and continued clean up. Therefore, the Heat Advisory
remains in effect through Friday evening for much of our eastern,
central, and southern CWA.

Now on to the short term!

It`s looking like summer on the radar today with scattered
thunderstorms, outflow boundaries, and an inland pushing sea
breeze boundary. All these features will continue to interact with
each other, creating a complex web of convective development
until we lose daytime heating this evening. As predicted,
thunderstorm activity has pushed farther inland today. Our primary
concern with these thunderstorms will be heavy downpours
occurring over areas with debris clogged storm drains. Therefore,
our streets are a little more prone to flooding. Our northern
counties have remained pretty dry. But isolated to widely
scattered showers/thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as far north
as the Brazos Valley. Tonight will be another warm and humid
night.

Tomorrow will have a similar set up. However, there will be added
PVA during the morning hours due to vort maxes embedded in the
mid/upper southwesterly flow aloft. This may help to kick off more
showers and thunderstorms in the morning. If the morning features
enough convective development, then afternoon instability could
be limited. Therefore, tomorrow afternoon`s thunderstorm chances
will depend on how much shower/thunderstorm coverage we have in
the morning. Hi-res models haven`t been much help in this matter
while global models insist there is a higher chance of rain in the
morning than there is in the afternoon. Much like today, the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over the southern
half of the CWA.

Temperature wise, highs both today and tomorrow are expected to be
in the low/mid 90s. However, areas that experience showers/storms
earlier in the day may struggle to reach 90F. Peak afternoon heat
index values are expected to average 100-103F. This is well below
our normal Heat Advisory criteria. But as explained in the first
paragraph, these are not normal times.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Hot and humid conditions will unfortunately continue through the
next several days as temperatures rise a little more each day.
The highs will be in the low 90s on Saturday, but by early next
week, the highs over areas north of I-10 will be in the mid to
upper 90s and in the low to mid 90s for areas south of I-10 and
coastal locations. We may be experiencing heat indices of 101 to
107 deg F this upcoming weekend, increasing up to 110 deg F by mid
week. Thus, it is likely we will continue the need for Heat
Advisories during the next several days.

Please continue to practice heat safety: Drink plenty of fluids,
stay in an air-conditioned room, and stay out of the sun. Take
extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting
clothing and try to limit strenuous activities. Never leave
children or pets inside vehicles unattended. Also, be aware that
the surface may be too hot for your pets paws when outdoors.

With respect to rain chances, we are likely going to continue to
have more of that typical summer pattern where there will be
enough instability, moisture and outflow boundaries to develop
showers and thunderstorms each day - in particular during the
afternoon to early evening hours. Some of these storms could
produce heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds at times. Ponding
of water on roadways and minor flooding in urban and poor
drainage areas can occur, especially for areas who have debris
still affecting the drainage.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Patchy fog will be possible across portions of SE Texas
overnight, bringing MVFR to potentially IFR flight levels. Fog
should begin to clear early Friday morning. Showers and storms
develop once again Friday morning, tapering off during the late
afternoon/early evening, slightly sooner than that of today.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 feet
or less can be expected through the next several days. Expect
periods of showers and storms each day. Stronger winds and
elevated seas could occur in and around storms.

Cotto (24)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

As of early Thursday morning, there are three Flood Warnings in
effect following the heavy rainfall and subsequent runoff from
Hurricane Beryl. The Tres Palacios River at Midfield crested in
major stage on Tuesday and is continuing to recede...it is forecast
to fall below flood stage by early Friday morning. The San Bernard
River at Boling crested in minor flood stage Tuesday and has fallen
back into action stage, but it is expected to have a secondary crest
into minor flood stage this afternoon. Lastly, Cypress Creek at
Sharp Road in western Harris County remains above flood stage and it
may take a day or so to recede.

There are a couple more sites that may need Flood Warnings at some
point over the next few days. The East Fork of the San Jacinto River
at New Caney is expected to crest into minor flood stage late this
evening and into the weekend. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff is
forecast to barely crest into minor flood stage over the weekend.

The excessive rainfall from Beryl along with subsequent unrelated
rounds of rainfall have left portions of Matagorda, Brazoria, Fort
Bend, Galveston, and Harris counties with above normal soil
moisture. With rain chances remaining elevated (~40+%) through
Saturday, it`s important to note that additional rainfall in these
areas will turn into runoff quickly.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
NEVER travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  93  74  93 /   0  20  10  30
Houston (IAH)  76  91  76  92 /  30  50  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  81  90 /  40  50  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ164-177>179-199-200-
     213-214-226-227-236>238-300-313-336>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto (24)