766
FXUS64 KHGX 121219
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Will be continuing the Heat Advisory for portions of SE TX for today
as power outages persist. Peak heat index values are should run from
100-103F this afternoon. While this is still well below our criteria
normally in place for a Heat Advisory, the ongoing issues with power
outages will keep an elevated risk for heat-related issues in place.

Otherwise, the forecast should remain in the active side as the area
remains in a weakness region between the upper ridges (one in/around
the Four Corners and the other near the East Coast). At the surface,
weak ridging and light onshore winds to linger. Weak disturbances in
the SW flow aloft should help with development as showers/storms be-
gin forming with the seabreeze along/near this coast by late morning.
With plenty of moisture in place (PWs 2-2.4"), heavy downpours could
occur through this afternoon. While the highest POPs are going to be
over the central and coastal CWA, activity could reach our northern-
most counties by late afternoon. Overall, coverage to will be on the
decrease by this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

And per models, this general set-up will remain in place for Sat. So
more of the same is expected tomorrow.

As for temperatures, highs for both today and tomorrow will range in
the lower and mid 90s. This should result in peak afternoon heat in-
dex values from 100-103F. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper
70s as muggy conditions prevail. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A stagnant synoptic pattern typical of the summer months will
continue throughout the end of the weekend and into next week,
allowing for the period of hot and humid weather with isolated
thunderstorm development chances to continue for the foreseeable
future. By Monday, global models continue to indicate the presence
of a robust mid/upper ridge over the western third of the CONUS,
while a broad area of surface high pressure remains situated over
the Central/Eastern Gulf. With little in the way of large-scale
forcing to speak of, conditions in the extended term should remain
relatively consistent. A light but nonetheless steady onshore flow
will continue to promote deep moisture -- with surface dew points
generally sitting in the mid/upper 70s. With diurnal heating/the
inland propagation of the sea and bay breeze boundary, there
should be sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorm
activity each afternoon. While the majority of development should
generally remain situated along and south of the I-10 corridor,
it`s impossible to rule out some isolated precipitation further to
the north.

Temperatures will continue to sit in the mid/upper 90s, generally
increasing over the course of the extended period as the
aforementioned ridge aloft strengthens and pushes gradually to the
east. Maximum heat index values will reach around 105 by Sunday,
and may push as high as 110 as we head into next week. As such,
additional Heat Advisories may be needed regardless of
circumstances surrounding the post-Beryl power outages. Heat
stress will be further aggravated by light winds and generally
clear skies, resulting in relatively high WBGT values. As such,
heat safety precautions will continue to remain very important.

Looking a bit beyond the period, the most recent GFS/EC runs show
the approach of a frontal boundary next Friday/Saturday that
should wash out just to our north. Nonetheless, this feature (and
subsequent outflows from resulting convection) may be the impetus
for our next round of widespread rainfall. Too early to be
definitive about this prospect for now, but nonetheless something
to monitor.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Forecast for today should be very similar to that of yesterday (and
the day before). Generally VFR but lower CIGS/VIS will occur as SH/
TSRAs developing along and near the seabreeze (at the coast) begins
moving further inland through the afternoon. Best chances for show-
ers/thunderstorms should remain mostly south of CXO, with only iso-
lated activity north. Coverage will be decreasing by late afternoon
and early evening. Patchy fog will be possible again tonight...most
likely our northern terminals. Light/variable winds this morning to
become light S/SE (around 10 kts) this afternoon. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A generally benign marine pattern will prevail through the weekend
and into next week. Light onshore winds, along with seas of 2-3
feet, will make the prospect of caution flags a very unlikely one.
There will be daily chances for thunderstorms, though coverage
will remain isolated in nature. Still, some brief locally higher
waves/winds may occur with any stronger storms.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  74  93  75 /  30  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)  89  76  91  77 /  50  20  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  89  81 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ164-177>179-199-
     200-213-214-226-227-236>238-300-313-336>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady