659
FXUS64 KHGX 151137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

With the mid/upper level pattern remaining in place (i.e. SE TX in
the weakness region between the ridging aloft), the slightly drier
air mass over area still won`t inhibit the development of isolated
showers/storms through this afternoon. And as it has been on late,
the best chances are expected to remain along/near the coast (main-
ly south of the I-10 corridor) with the seabreeze (~20%). Activity
should be on the decline by late this afternoon/early evening. But
tomorrow, moisture levels are progged to begin climbing once again
(PWs from 1.7 to 1.8" today/1.9 to 2.0" tomorrow). This along with
additional embedded weak disturbances in the flow aloft will allow
for increased POPs as well (20-30%) on Tues. And again, the better
chances will be from around the I-10 corridor south to the coast.

These sunnier skies will translate to warmer daytime temperatures,
with highs in the mid and upper 90s from the Brazos Valley out the
Piney Woods...mid 90s central/Houston metro and then the lower 90s
across the coastal counties...for both today and tomorrow. This is
going to produce heat index values in the 102-105F range each day.
These conditions could still have dangerous heat impacts for those
working outdoors and with people still without power. Please drink
plenty of fluids and stay safe. Overnight lows in the 70s could pro-
vide some relief. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Rainfall chances will begin to ramp up on Wednesday as an midlevel
trough begins to push into the Southern Plains. The approach of
this feature (and resultant PVA) along with robust moisture
availably (PWs of around 2.0 in) should be sufficient to provide
continued support for diurnally driven showers/storms that will
peak during the afternoon. As such, have maintained the 40-50% PoP
forecast for Wednesday with the greatest chances concentrated
along and south of the I-10 corridor. A further increase in
shower/storm coverage arrives towards the end of the week a
surface low associated with the prevailing longwave trough over
the Great Lakes drags a weak frontal boundary through the Central
Plains. With moisture availability still abundant and diurnal
heating providing sufficient instability, the environment will be
supportive of more widespread rainfall with the potential for
isolated stronger storms to produce locally heavy downpours and/or
gusty winds. While a significant flooding threat does not appear
on the cards, a few locally higher rainfall totals are possible
depending on the location of any stronger storms. Otherwise, total
weekly QPF forecast remains under an inch area-wide. The boundary
should stall somewhere over SE TX by Friday, allowing for
relatively high rainfall chances to remain in the forecast through
the duration of the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead beyond the
official forecast period, global models show a fairly robust
midlevel low developing in the Central Plains which could support
a continued wet pattern for the week of July 22.

Temperatures will initially remain near seasonal normals, with
daily highs on Wednesday in the mid/upper 90s. Overall highs will
diminish thereafter due to the expansion of expected rainfall
coverage, with many areas struggling to eclipse 90 by Friday. That
being said, the ultimate high temperatures each day will
ultimately be driven by the exact timing and development of any
thunderstorms -- with the prospect of afternoon storms certainly
making some locally lower values possible. Overnight lows will
generally remain situated in the mid/upper 70s inland and the
lower 80s along the coast.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

It should be a generally quiet forecast with only some brief patchy
fog in the early mornings and a slight chance of showers/storms for
the mornings (at the coast) and afternoons (for terminals IAH south
to the coast). Confidence remains low regarding timing/location, so
will not add any mention of precipitation in the TAFS at this time.
Otherwise, will maintain VFR conditions through the package. Light/
variable winds during the overnight hours (2-4kt) should transition
to S/SW during the day (6-10kt). 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Light onshore winds and 1-3 foot seas will not necessitate
caution flags and/or advisories for the foreseeable future. Daily
thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, with expected
rainfall coverage expanding by the end of the week. A few isolated
stronger storms can`t be ruled out, with brief increases in
seas/winds possible as a result. A brief shift to north winds is
possible on Friday as a weak surface frontal boundary stalls over
the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  74  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  77  94  77 /  20  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  82  90  81 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady