Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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564 FXUS64 KHGX 042337 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure aloft over the SE CONUS will continue to bring hot conditions across SE Texas through the end of the week. NAEFS and GEFS indicate that 500mb heights will around the 90th to 97.5th percentile for this time of the year, while deterministic models show midlevel heights ranging from 593-594 dam. 850mb temperatures will still be around 18-22C, commonly seen with summertime heat such as this. Isolated showers and storms will still be possible this afternoon along the sea breeze. However, rainfall has been very sparse these last several days, so by in large most areas will not receive any rainfall this afternoon. We`ll see this pattern begin to change Friday as an upper level trough digs through the Great Lakes. This feature is progged to weaken the mid level high, while simultaneously pushing a weak frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex area. CAM guidance suggests that this feature will help initiate storms across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area Friday afternoon. Though, rainfall coverage will still be too little to have a significant impact on temperatures across SE Texas as a whole. Highs through Friday will still be in the 90s with isolated spots approaching triple digits. Lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat indices still range from 105-111 during the afternoon hours. The Heat Risk through Friday is still expected to be Major, indicating that heat related illnesses will be more prevalent, especially for those with inadequate cooling or poor hydration. WBGT values still suggest that those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may experience Extreme heat stress. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across all of SE Texas until 7 PM Friday. As this hazardous heat continues, be sure to practice good heat safety habits. Drink plenty of water and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. Stay in an air- conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check with your local authorities regarding the potential opening of any cooling centers in your area. Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do not underestimate the danger it poses. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Although the highs cool off by a degree or two on Saturday, conditions will remain hot with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s. Moisture convergence over Southeast Texas will unfortunately not bring much relief from the heat and help maintain heat indices of 105-110 deg F for most of the local area. Thus, additional Heat Advisories could be issued for Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible, in particular during the afternoon to early evening hours, as a boundary lingers across the region and interacts with a slightly moist/unstable airmass. Sunday into Monday, higher rain chances are possible as Beryl continues to track north northwest and moves across the northeastern coastal border of Mexico and southern Texas sometime late Sunday night or early Monday morning. The higher chances for showers and storms are likely to occur west of I-45, but any changes in the track/intensity forecast of Beryl could result in more or less rain chances than what is currently on the forecast. Beryl could bring high surf and strong rip currents along the coasts/beaches, therefore, make sure to keep tabs on the latest forecasts and make the appropriate preparations if you are planning to visit our coastal locations or explore the Gulf waters this weekend and/or early next week as conditions can be dangerous. Trailing behind Beryl is another tropical disturbance and fortunately, environmental conditions will not be conducive for development. However, a surge of moisture associated to the disturbance could move into the Texas coasts Tuesday into Wednesday and rise PWs to 2.4 to 2.7 inches. The local environmental conditions look to be favorable for several more rounds of scattered to widespread showers and isolated storms, in particular on Tuesday. With all the cloud coverage and rain, we could at least get a little break in the heat with highs possibly ranging between the upper 80s to low 90s through mid week. We will however, need to keep an eye on rainfall rates as well as soil saturation given that we could experience minor low lying, poor drainage, and street flooding. Again, the rain chances and impacts will ultimately depend on how the disturbance and associated moisture tracks. Therefore, continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Fore more information regarding weather conditions for Southeast Texas, visit weather.gov/hgx and for information regarding tropical cyclone activity, visit nhc.noaa.gov 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Of course, no sooner than I pull the VCSH for the day due to lack of development, one single solitary storm fires up near the 10SM circles for both IAH and HOU. Return a VCTS for those two until the storm dies off. Beyond that, little change. VFR throughout, except perhaps some brief stretches around the Houston terminals around fireworks time. Winds would make any visibility restriction more likely at IAH than HOU/SGR. Light/VRB winds tonight, coming up generally southerly later tomorrow morning. However, things get modestly trickier tomorrow as a weak front sags on in. Expect variable to even northerly/northeasterly winds from IAH northward as the boundary drops in for the afternoon. Also have VCSH in place at UTS, CXO, and IAH, though confidence in SHRA/TSRA holding together is not terribly high right now. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the next few days. Winds and seas will be on the rise later this weekend into the first half of the upcoming week as first Beryl moves into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern coast of Mexico and then another tropical disturbance follows a similar path (slightly more south) days later. Elevated water levels along the Bays, high surf, and strong rip currents are possible. Moreover, associated to these two systems, several rounds of showers and storms can be expected and could result in higher winds/seas in and near strong storms. Additional changes in the track/intensity of Beryl and the subsequent tropical disturbance are possible during the next few days, thus, continue to monitor the progress of both systems. 24 && .TROPICAL... Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Beryl continues to work its way westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl is expected to continue north-northwestward after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and have a landfall near the Texas/Mexico border on Sunday night or early Monday morning. Keep updated with the latest National Hurricane Center advisories (nhc.noaa.gov) as any significant changes in the track and/or intensity forecast could lead to significant changes in our area forecast. 24/42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 98 77 95 / 0 20 20 40 Houston (IAH) 80 98 79 96 / 30 20 30 60 Galveston (GLS) 83 93 82 93 / 10 20 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....Cotto AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Cotto