Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
943 FXUS64 KHGX 072157 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 457 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tropical Storm Beryl continues to be the main forecast feature for SE TX the next few of days. The system is still expected to streng- then back to hurricane force this evening, with landfall just east of Matagorda Bay overnight. In the meantime, rainfall bands associ- ated with Beryl will continue to move inland and across SE TX with squall-like conditions possible. Hurricane Warnings will remain in place for our SW coastal counties with Tropical Storm Warnings for the rest of the CWA. Storm Surge Warnings are in place for much of the Middle to Upper TX coast. While there could be sustained winds up to tropical storm force winds (39-73mph) from the Houston metro all the way up to Lake Livingston (highest near the coast and then decreasing going N/NE) around landfall overnight into Mon morning, the main threat for SE TX should the excessive/heavy rain as Beryl weakens over the region for Mon afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals will average from 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts up to 15 inches possible. Scattered showers the last couple of days have help to increase soil moisture in places, so it may not take a lot of rain to cause issues tomorrow. Additionally, some of the storms will be capable of producing tornadoes. Much more information regarding these tropical hazards (and more) can be found on our Hurricane Local Statement. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 In the wake of Beryl, which will be well into AR by Tues afternoon, the weak/diffuse flow at the mid to upper levels along with broad/ weak high pressure at the surface across the region will give us a more diurnal precipitation pattern...fueled by some lingering deep tropical moisture. The best rain chances are likely going to focus on the sea/bay breezes during the late morning/afternoons. This is going to help keep highs mostly in the lower 90s through the week, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. 41 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Outer rainbands from Beryl will continue spreading across SE TX this afternoon with squally conditions developing at times. Coverage will be increasing tonight through tomorrow morning as Beryl moves inland and tracks north. Have added LLWS groups with this package given the current path of the storm starting tomorrow morning. Otherwise, TAFs will be mostly VFR (outside of the storms) with conditions deterior- ating this evening/overnight. Many amendments will be forthcoming as this event evolves. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Winds and seas along with the coverage of squalls will continue to increase this evening and into tonight as Beryl approaches the Texas Coast. The National Hurricane Center continues to predict that Beryl will become a category one hurricane before moving ashore late tonight or early tomorrow. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Matagorda Bay along with the nearshore and offshore waters through Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Galveston Bay. Seas of 15-20 feet (occasionally higher) are expected tonight and tomorrow morning along with widespread strong gales. Hurricane force gusts are likely in squalls. Sustained hurricane conditions are expected near where the storm tracks. Winds and seas are expected to gradually improve by tomorrow afternoon. However, lingering heavy squalls will be possible. Once Beryl is out of the way, expect a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms to continue through Friday. Winds are expected to be relatively light with seas generally 2-3 feet. However, locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out in or near any thunderstorm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 81 72 87 / 60 90 30 20 Houston (IAH) 77 82 75 90 / 90 100 50 30 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 79 88 / 100 100 70 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ226-235>237-335>337-436-437. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214- 227-238-300-313-338-438-439. Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Monday through Tuesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>439. Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439. Hurricane Watch for TXZ438. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...41 MARINE...Self