933
FXHW60 PHFO 130206
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
406 PM HST Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong ridge will remain north of the state into early next
week, maintaining windy trade winds. Typical summertime trade
wind pattern will prevail into next week with clouds and showers
favoring windward and mauka areas. Fewer leeward clouds are
expected, except along the upper Kona slopes where summertime
afternoon/evening clouds and showers tend to develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast remains on track with the strong ridge remaining north
of the state, maintaining windy conditions into early next week.
Furthermore the afternoon soundings show the inversion heights
have sagged down a bit and are now running around 5 to 6 kft
verifying the atmospheric is becoming more stable around the state.
We can continue to expect clouds and scattered showers to remain
focused along windward and mauka areas with limited clouds and
showers over leeward areas. The exception will be the upper Kona
slopes of the Big Island where clouds and showers will clear
overnight and become partly cloudy with isolated showers each
afternoon. Winds may gradually ease by mid- week next week as an
upper level disturbance develops northeast of the state. This
disturbance upstream of the state may also produce an uptick in
shower coverage with the trade wind regime and destabilize the
atmosphere. ECMWF shows the upper level disturbance developing
farther east of the state than the GFS so exact details are still
influx and will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak upper level trough will continue to drift west of the state
tonight. A strong surface ridge remains far north of the state as
breezy to locally windy trades will continue for the next few of
days, with passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas.
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail, with brief periods of MVFR in
showers/low clouds mainly in the overnight to early morning hours.

AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect
for north through east sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and
the Big Island. AIRMET Sierra may need to be extended into the
evening for some islands.

AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence over and in the
lee of island terrain will remain in effect for the next several
days due to the strong trades.


&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes to the forecast with the afternoon package.
A strong ridge north of the region will continue to bring strong
trade winds to the coastal waters this weekend. The typical
windier areas will see winds near gale force at times, along with
seas approaching 10 ft advisory levels. As such a Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all coastal waters through
Sunday afternoon.

The strong trades are expected to ease some early next week as the
ridge weakens bit. That being said, SCA level winds are expected
to linger in more than just the typical windier waters near Maui
County and the Big Island early next week. The current SCA will
be extended into next week for the typical windier areas, and
likely a few additional areas depending on how the event unfolds.

Due to the strong trade winds upstream of the state, surf along
east facing shores will remain rough through early next week. A
downward trend is possible around midweek as the upstream fetch
weakens and the local trades begin to ease.

Surf along south facing shores will remain up as overlapping
south-southwest swells move through. A fresh south-southwest that
has filled in will result in an gradually upward trend through
Saturday. A more significant south swell will gradually fill in
late Saturday night into Sunday, then likely reach the advisory
level late Sunday through Monday. A gradual downward trend is
expected Tuesday through midweek.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian
waters-


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...M Ballard