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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
453 FXHW60 PHFO 130718 CCA AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Honolulu HI 918 PM HST Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure generally north of the Hawaiian Islands will hold the next several days. This will maintain the ongoing typically dry summertime trade wind pattern. Thicker more areal coverage clouds and more frequent showers will also continue to favor windward exposures and mauka zones. The next decent chance of more island-wide rain may be early next week in response to a vicinity upper level disturbance northeast of the state. && .DISCUSSION... There is little variance in forecast philosophy under this near static Central Pacific synoptic pattern. Summertime dry trades persist as a pair of high pressure centers northwest and northeast of the islands drive primarily fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds. Relatively lower inversion 5-6k foot above surface heights resulting in a more shallow boundary layer, in tandem with dry mid to upper level %RHs advecting across the island chain, nearly guarantees a stable enough regional environment that will generally only support windward/mauka cloudier skies and more frequent showers. The usual suspect caveats still apply of cloudier, slightly more wet afternoon Big Island Kona and Ka`u region slope conditions with occasional leeward sprinkles partly cloudy skies and sprinkles riding over local area ridgetops. The development of an upper level disturbance forming in the middle of northern ridging early next week will be the impetus to gradually weakening trades. The reflection of lowering surface pressure, along with a vicinity subtropical jet, may work in favor of increasing the probs of more areawide pockets of better organized shower activity. The main question marks to increased shower coverage will be whether or not there will 1) be ample column moisture within an anticipated deeper, marginally- destabilized boundary layer and 2) the proximity of the upper disturbance to the islands. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally windy trades will continue for the next few days. SHRA and low cigs will favor windward and mauka locations. Brief MVFR conds are possible in any SHRA. VFR conds should generally prevail. AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc remains in effect for N thru SE sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. AIRMET Tango for mod low-level turb lee of island terrain will remain in effect for the next several days due to the strong trades. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep fresh to strong trade winds in the forecast through the weekend and into much of next week. Typical windier channel areas will see wind speeds near gale forecast at times with seas approaching 10 foot advisory levels. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters through Saturday afternoon. A subtle decrease in the trade winds are forecast by early next week. The SCA winds will linger in more than just the typical windier waters for most of next week. Due to the strong trade winds upstream of the state, surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through early next week. A downward trend is possible around midweek as the upstream fetch weakens and the local trades begin to ease. Surf along south facing shores will remain up as overlapping south-southwest swells move through. A more significant south swell will gradually fill in late Saturday night into Sunday, likely resulting in advisory level surf late Sunday through Monday. A gradual downward trend is expected Tuesday through midweek. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Blood AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Bohlin