042
FXHW60 PHFO 101300
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
300 AM HST Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate trades will prevail today, then strengthen to
moderate and locally breezy levels Sunday through late next week.
Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with bands of
moisture periodically moving through the islands and increasing
the trade showers and sending a few into leeward communities as
well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1700
miles north-northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending
southwest to a location around 400 miles northwest of Kauai. The
resulting gradient is producing light to moderate trade winds
across the island chain this morning. Infrared satellite imagery
shows partly cloudy skies across much of the state, with a bit
more cloud coverage over some windward areas as well as leeward
sections of the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers
moving into windward areas, with a few of these showers spilling
leeward at times. Main short term focus revolves around trade
wind trends and rain chances.

Moderate trades are expected to persist today as the surface
ridge northwest of the islands remains nearly stationary. The
ridge will shift northwest tonight and Sunday, strengthening the
trades to moderate and locally breezy levels. Only minor
fluctuations in trade wind strength are expected through late next
week, with high pressure north of the state keeping moderate to
locally breezy conditions in place.

As for the remaining weather details, typical summertime trade
wind conditions are expected today, with showers favoring
windward and mauka areas, while leeward areas remain mostly dry.
We will likely see an increase in trade wind showers tonight
through Sunday night as some enhanced moisture moves through.
Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with a
few more showers reaching leeward communities as well. Fairly
typical trade wind weather will then prevail Monday and Tuesday,
with the potential for another band of enhanced moisture to
increase trade wind showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
with drier trade wind weather to follow for the end of the
upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trades will continue with clouds and brief showers,
favoring windward and mountain areas today. These moderate trade
wind speeds will allow for some very localized daytime onshore sea
breezes along terrain sheltered leeward slopes of each island
today.

VFR conditions will prevail with brief periods of MVFR conditions
possible mainly along windward and mountain slopes. A passing weak
disturbance will produce increasing cloud and shower trends with
MVFR conditions along windward and mountain slopes through the
overnight hours.

No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are anticipated in the short
term.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally fresh trades will hold through today before
strengthening to moderate to locally strong trade winds tonight
as a ridge of high pressure builds north of the state. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued for typical windy waters around
Maui County and the Big Island beginning tonight. Winds may
weaken slightly around the middle of next week as a weak trough
moves over the state from the east. Otherwise, little variation is
expected.

A small south southwest swell (14-15 seconds) will peak today
slightly above the summer average. The swell will hold through
Sunday before slowly subsiding early next week. Several small,
south swells may move through the state next week, keeping small
surf along south facing shores.

A tiny pulse from the north northwest is expected to fill in
tonight, keeping tiny ripples along north facing shores through
the rest of the weekend. Small, below average surf along east
facing shores will persist through today. As trades build
upstream and locally, expect east facing surf to gradually build
Sunday into early next week. There is also a possibility of a
small boost in east facing shore surf early next week from former
Tropical Cyclone Emilia.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Tuesday
for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Almanza