335
FXHW60 PHFO 090148
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
348 PM HST Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief increase of showers are expected through tonight with
drier conditions expected on Tuesday. Trade winds will gradually
strengthen Tuesday into Wednesday, with strong trades expected
during the second half of the week. Passing showers will mainly
focus over windward areas and should spill over to leeward areas
from time to time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon`s satellite shows a plume of moisture moving
through Maui County and should be approaching Oahu this evening
from the east and Kauai later tonight. This plume of moisture
should bring a brief increase of showers mainly over windward
areas. A drier air mass will follow behind this plume of moisture
and we should see drier conditions by Tuesday.

A fairly typical summer day is expected for Tuesday, with mostly
dry conditions over leeward areas and some passing showers over
windward areas. Trades are expected to pick up a notch, with
moderate to locally breezy trades across the state. Over on the
summits of the Big Island, winds are expected to pick up during
the afternoon and evening with winds of 30 to 40 mph. We will
closely monitor the winds on the summits and a Wind Advisory may
be needed for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

As the ridge strengthens north of the state around Wednesday,
strong trades are expected during the second half of the week.
With the stronger trades, an uptick of showers are expected with
showers spilling over to leeward areas at times. Precipitable
water values begin to drop below normal over the weekend, which
should decrease shower coverage starting Friday. Breezy to strong
trades with some light passing showers are expected for this
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
Locally breezy trades continue through today and will further
strengthen on Tuesday. Low clouds and showers will focus over
windward and mauka zones, especially this evening into tonight as
a surface trough advances westward through the area. VFR is
forecast to prevail through the daytime hours with an increasing
probability for MVFR windward and mauka tonight.

No AIRMETs in effect.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed this evening
into tonight.

AIRMET Tango for lee turbulence may be needed on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A broad ridge of high pressure north of the state will gradually
strengthen over the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will strengthen to moderate to locally strong trade winds
tonight and persist through the forecast period. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the typical windy waters around
Maui County and The Big Island starting around midnight Tuesday.
More zones may need to be added to the SCA Wednesday as the ridge
further strengthens and strong trades expand in area.

Small surf will hold along south facing shores through much of
this week as the current small south- southeast swell slowly
declines. A small, long period  south-southwest swell will fill
in early Tuesday morning, which should maintain small surf along
south facing shores through the work week. Into the long range, a
storm low pressure system currently southeast of New Zealand will
send a decent run of south swells beginning this weekend. Surf
heights may reach advisory thresholds of 10 feet along south
facing shores during its peak Sunday into Monday.

North facing shore surf will return to near flat summer time
average as the small northerly swells fades. Rough, choppy surf
along east facing shores will steadily increase during the second
half of the week as the trades strengthen locally and upstream of
the state.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM HST Thursday
for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel- Big Island
Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Almanza