Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
448 FXHW60 PHFO 111945 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 945 AM HST Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect moderate to breezy trade winds through the forecast period as high pressure lingers north of the main Hawaiian Islands. A trade wind distribution of clouds and showers will prevail, with both favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. Total rainfall will be light. && .DISCUSSION... A strong surface high persists far north northeast of the islands, driving moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. Satellite loop shows scattered to patchy broken low clouds across windward and mauka sections of Oahu, with scattered low clouds noted elsewhere across the smaller islands. Broken low clouds cover windward shores and lower slopes on the Big Island. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers moving across windward areas, with some of these showers reaching leeward areas. Models show high pressure will remain north of the state through the coming week, keeping moderate to locally breezy trade winds blowing across local waters. Expect only minor variations in trade wind strength from day to day. Typical trade wind weather will prevail, with bands of showers embedded within trade wind flow periodically moving through the islands. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. Leeward areas may get wet as well from time to time. Total rainfall will be light. && .AVIATION... Locally breezy trades will deliver periodic low clouds and brief showers to windward and mauka areas through the forecast period. Pockets of MVFR will be possible but VFR is forecast to prevail. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... High pressure north-northeast of the state will drift southwest today into Monday producing moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through early Tuesday. Winds may weaken slightly around the middle of the week as a weak low-level trough moves over the state from the east. Otherwise, moderate to locally strong trades are expected to persist through much of next week as the high lingers north of the state. Offshore and near shore buoys continue to show the some south swell energy moving through in the 13-15 second band. Expect south shore surf to hold through the rest of this morning before gradually declining through Monday. The next small, long-period south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and peak Wednesday night into Thursday. This swell will produce another small boost in surf along south facing shores before declining through the rest of the week. A tiny pulse from the north-northwest will fade today with nearly flat conditions returning Monday and Tuesday. Another small north-northwest pulse is possible Wednesday through the second half of the week, producing tiny surf along north facing shores. Near shore buoys are showing an uptick in 8-10 second period energy out of the east overnight. This uptick is partly due to trades increasing both upstream and locally and possibly from small pulses of east swell from former Tropical Cyclone Emilia. Choppy east shore surf can be expected through much of the week as trades persist. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Powell AVIATION...JVC MARINE...TS