


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
841 FXHW60 PHFO 300137 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 337 PM HST Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate trades will persist over the next few days with moderate to locally breezy trades returning around mid week. Generally fair weather is expected throughout the week with batches of moisture riding in with the trade winds at times. Breezy to locally strong trades are expected for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... This afternoon`s satellite and radar imagery shows some scattered showers across the state, which are producing some light rainfall. Trade winds will continue to gradually weaken through Monday in response to a weak surface trough passing to our north. With light trades in place, land breezes will be possible for select areas tonight and sea breezes will be possible during the day on Monday. Shower activity could be slightly more active than your typical summer day on Monday due to a weak trough passing to our north and afternoon sea breeze development across select leeward areas. Also satellite imagery does show some high level clouds streaming over the western half of the state, which should linger into Monday. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the trough should be away from our area with moderate trade winds returning across the state. Drier conditions with less cloud cover is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday, we do have a weak upper level trough that will be moving through the island chain from the east, which could bring an uptick of shower coverage. But confidence remains low at this time, due to the lack of low level moisture. Over the weekend, there is good agreement within the GFS and ECMWF ensembles for breezy to locally strong trade wind weather across the state. Stronger trades generally lead to more passing showers due to greater orographic lift. But any showers should remain on the lighter side due to stable conditions aloft. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will gradually weaken into tomorrow as a broad surface trough moves overhead, weakening the local pressure gradient and veering the winds out of the east- southeast. With this lighter flow, sea breezes will begin to become more prevalent tomorrow afternoon, building clouds and showers over leeward and interior areas. Otherwise, passing showers will focus primarily over the usual windward and mountain areas, favoring the nighttime/early morning hours. Brief periods of MVFR conditions will remain possible with any showers but overall VFR conditions should prevail. No AIRMETs are in effect this afternoon, but AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed overnight as shower coverage picks up across windward areas. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected to gradually decrease through Monday as a couple of troughs far to the north and northwest weaken the ridge to our north. Trades should veer slightly toward the east-southeast and weaken to gentle to moderate speeds as a result. Moderate to fresh trades could return as early as Tuesday as the troughs move away and high pressure rebuilds far north of the state. Surf along south facing shores should see a small, long-period south swell slowly fill in through tonight, with surf peaking near or slightly above the summertime average late Monday through Tuesday. This swell will then gradually decline through the rest of the week. A smaller long-period south swell could move through toward the end of this week for a slight boost to south shore surf. Surf along east shores will gradually decline over the next several days due to the trade winds weakening. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny throughout next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Farris MARINE...TS