841
FXHW60 PHFO 300137
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
337 PM HST Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate trades will persist over the next few days with
moderate to locally breezy trades returning around mid week.
Generally fair weather is expected throughout the week with
batches of moisture riding in with the trade winds at times.
Breezy to locally strong trades are expected for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon`s satellite and radar imagery shows some scattered
showers across the state, which are producing some light rainfall.
Trade winds will continue to gradually weaken through Monday in
response to a weak surface trough passing to our north. With
light trades in place, land breezes will be possible for select
areas tonight and sea breezes will be possible during the day on
Monday. Shower activity could be slightly more active than your
typical summer day on Monday due to a weak trough passing to our
north and afternoon sea breeze development across select leeward
areas. Also satellite imagery does show some high level clouds
streaming over the western half of the state, which should linger
into Monday.

By Tuesday or Wednesday, the trough should be away from our area
with moderate trade winds returning across the state. Drier
conditions with less cloud cover is expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

For Thursday and Friday, we do have a weak upper level trough that
will be moving through the island chain from the east, which could
bring an uptick of shower coverage. But confidence remains low at
this time, due to the lack of low level moisture.

Over the weekend, there is good agreement within the GFS and ECMWF
ensembles for breezy to locally strong trade wind weather across
the state. Stronger trades generally lead to more passing showers
due to greater orographic lift. But any showers should remain on
the lighter side due to stable conditions aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will gradually weaken into
tomorrow as a broad surface trough moves overhead, weakening the
local pressure gradient and veering the winds out of the east-
southeast. With this lighter flow, sea breezes will begin to
become more prevalent tomorrow afternoon, building clouds and
showers over leeward and interior areas. Otherwise, passing
showers will focus primarily over the usual windward and mountain
areas, favoring the nighttime/early morning hours. Brief periods
of MVFR conditions will remain possible with any showers but
overall VFR conditions should prevail.

No AIRMETs are in effect this afternoon, but AIRMET Sierra for
mountain obscuration may be needed overnight as shower coverage
picks up across windward areas.


&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected to gradually
decrease through Monday as a couple of troughs far to the north
and northwest weaken the ridge to our north. Trades should veer
slightly toward the east-southeast and weaken to gentle to
moderate speeds as a result. Moderate to fresh trades could return
as early as Tuesday as the troughs move away and high pressure
rebuilds far north of the state.

Surf along south facing shores should see a small, long-period
south swell slowly fill in through tonight, with surf peaking
near or slightly above the summertime average late Monday through
Tuesday. This swell will then gradually decline through the rest
of the week. A smaller long-period south swell could move through
toward the end of this week for a slight boost to south shore
surf.

Surf along east shores will gradually decline over the next
several days due to the trade winds weakening. Surf along
north facing shores will remain tiny throughout next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...TS